Today we have a 4-pack of College Football Bowl Games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Wake Forest vs Mississippi State (-3, 53.5)
This is the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and it will be played at Bank of American Stadium, home of the Carolina Panthers.
Wake Forest (8-4) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to Duke 49-32 and failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Mississippi State (5-7) has dropped three straight and just got rolled by Ole Miss 38-19, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite.
Early in the week, we saw Mississippi State rise up to as high as -4.5. However, since that time we’ve seen sharp inflated buyback on Wake Forest, dropping Mississippi State back down to -3 on gameday.
The public is backing the Bulldogs, with 59% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the points with Mississippi State.
On the flip side, this means Wake Forest is offering notable contrarian value as the Demon Deacons are only taking in 41% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised game on ESPN.
At DraftKings, Wake Forest is taking in 41% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Demon Deacons plus the points.
Those looking to go contrarian and back Wake Forest would be wise to shop around for a hook, as a few outliers books are offering the Demon Deacons +3.5 (-120) while most of the market is down to +3.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen the number plummet from 56.5 to 53.5.
At Circa, the under is taking in only 40% of bets but a whopping 93% of dollars, a lopsided sharp discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game from the sharps in the desert.
Motivation may provide an edge to Wake Forest, as head coach Jake Dickert is in his first year with the Demon Deacons and has yet to win a Bowl Game in his career. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is only playing in this game because several teams opted not to participate.
Wake Forest has the better defense, allowing 22.5 PPG (42nd) while Mississippi State is giving up 31.8 PPG (109th).
The Demon Deacons may also enjoy some de-facto home field advantage, as this matchup takes place in their home state.
8 p.m. ET: Arizona vs SMU (-1.5, 51.5)
This is the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl and it will be played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California.
Arizona (9-3, ranked 17th) has won five games in a row and just took down Arizona State 23-7, easily covering as 2-point road favorites. On the other hand, SMU (8-4) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to California 38-35 and losing outright as 13.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Arizona listed as high as a 3-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 60% of spread bets are backing Arizona, who has the better won-loss record and ranking.
However, despite Arizona receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of SMU, moving the Mustangs from a 3-point neutral site dog to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of SMU.
SMU offers heightened “bet against the public” value as the Mustangs are only receiving 40% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on FOX.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk and play the Mustangs on the moneyline at -115.
At Circa, SMU is taking in 88% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in favor of a Mustangs straight up victory from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
SMU has buy-low value as an unranked favorite vs a ranked opponent, as well as a team coming off a straight up loss as a favorite against a sell-high trendy dog on a winning streak.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5.
This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over at DraftKings (71% of bets), yet the total fell.
At Circa, the under is receiving 27% of bets but a massive 77% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Arizona head coach Brent Brennan hasn’t officially announced any opt-outs, however, based on the line move there is a possibility of several Wildcats missing this matchup.
