Today we have a pair of College Football Bowl Games to close out the week. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

4 p.m. ET: North Texas vs Texas State (-14, 65.5)

This is the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl and it will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. North Texas (6-6) just snapped a five-game losing streak with a 24-17 win over Temple in the regular season finale, although the Mean Green failed to cover as 12-point road favorites. On the other hand, Texas State (7-5) has won three of their last four games and just took down South Alabama 45-38, covering as 2.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Texas State listed as a 7.5-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen drastic line movement in favor of the Bobcats, as Texas State has been steamed up from -7.5 to -14. The movement toward Texas State has been consistent with no discernible buyback on North Texas. At DraftKings, Texas State is receiving 54% of spread bets but a whopping 74% of spread dollars, indicating ever-so-slight public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. At Circa, Texas State is taking in 60% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars, signaling Pro and Joe action laying the points out in Vegas.

One of the main reasons we’ve seen such a massive line move in favor of Texas State is the fact that North Texas is suffering a plethora of opt-outs and transfers. The Mean Green will be without their starting quarterback, top wide receiver, tight end and multiple offensive linemen. True freshman Drew Mestemaker is expected to start under center. On the other hand, Texas State’s starting quarterback Jordan McCloud (2,920 passing yards, 29 TDs this season) is expected to start for the Bobcats.

The total has been a rollercoaster, as it opened as high as 68.5 and plummeted to as low as 61.5 before rising back up to 65.5 where it stands now. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 55% of bets and 57% of dollars. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 36% of bets but 50% of dollars on the under. Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for high low 60s with sunny skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

7:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota (-10, 42.5) vs Virginia Tech

This is the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and it will be played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, home of the Carolina Panthers. Minnesota (7-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 24-7 win over Wisconsin in the regular season finale, easily covering as 2-point road favorites. Similarly, Virginia Tech (6-6) just ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-17 win over Virginia, cruising as 4.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen a massive line move in favor of the Golden Gophers, with Minnesota moving from -4.5 to -10. At DraftKings, Minnesota is receiving 57% of spread bets and a hefty 83% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. At Circa, Minnesota is taking in 81% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way support out in Vegas.

Once again, opt outs and transfers are a major factor in this matchup. Virginia Tech is expected to be without 14 starters, including QB Kyron Drones along with several offensive linemen and key defenders. On the other hand, Minnesota is expected to be near full strength with very few, if any, notable opt outs. Golden Gophers running back Darius Taylor (873 rushing yards, 9 TDs) recently said “At Minnesota, we take pride in bowl games… We work so hard during the season so we view it as a privilege to be here. We take winning these bowl games very seriously as a team.”

In terms of the total, we haven’t seen much movement. It opened at 42.5 and reached 43 briefly at some shops before falling back down to 42.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 20% of bets and 52% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 20% of bets and a whopping 90% of dollars. Both books are showing a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game. Weather could also play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 40s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 30 MPH. This would qualify as a “windy under” system match.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR