Tonight we have a doubleheader of Friday Night Lights action across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Clemson at Louisville (-2.5, 50.5)
Clemson (4-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 24-10 win over Florida State, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Louisville (7-2, ranked 20th) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to California 29-26 in overtime and losing outright as 18.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Louisville listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.
The public says Louisville is far the better team and they’re rushing to the window to lay the short chalk at home with the Cardinals.
However, despite receiving 75% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Louisville fall from -3.5 to -2.5.
Taking a step back, why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Louisville to begin with? Because respected sharp action has come down on Clemson plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog Tigers.
Clemson is the top “bet against the public” play of the night as the Tigers are only receiving one-quarter of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN.
At DraftKings, Clemson is taking in 25% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers in their favor.
Clemson has buy-low value as an unpopular unranked road dog against a sell-high popular ranked favorite. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 77-64 ATS (55%) with a 4% ROI this season and 185-155 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
Friday road dogs are 15-9 ATS (62%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 661-587 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2012.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down slightly from 51.5 to 50.5 across the market.
This dip is notable because the public is hammering the over (75% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell.
When the total is 50 or more, the under is 13-9 (59%) with a 13% ROI on Friday night this season. If the total stays the same or falls, the under is 14-10 (58%) with a 12% ROI on Friday night this season.
9 p.m. ET: Minnesota at Oregon (-25.5, 44.5)
Minnesota (6-3) has won three of their last four and just edged Michigan State 23-20 in overtime but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Oregon (8-1, ranked 8th) has won three straight and just outlasted Iowa 18-16 but failed to cover as 4.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Oregon listed as low as a 21.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought the opener was a bit short and have gotten down hard on Oregon, steaming the Ducks up from -21.5 to -25.5.
At DraftKings, Oregon is taking in 54% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, Oregon is receiving 66% of spread bets but a whopping 88% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
However, now that the line has moved so much, bettors must ask themselves a key question: is the value now gone on Oregon?
A closer look at the line movement shows that Oregon reached as high as -26.5 at some shops shops but has fallen back down to -25.5 over the past 24-hours, indicating some high-water mark buyback on Minnesota as an inflated dog. In fact, most of the market is juicing up Minnesota +25.5 (-115) on game day, with a few other books inching down to +25.
Minnesota has correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game (44.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the massive favorite to cover.
Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 77-64 ATS (55%) with a 4% ROI this season and 185-155 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
Friday road dogs are 15-9 ATS (62%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Big Ten dogs in conference play are 32-22 ATS (59%) with a 12% ROI this season. If they are getting 25-points or more they improve to 3-1 ATS (75%) this season.
Minnesota also enjoys a rest advantage, having just come off a bye while Oregon just played a physical game on the road against Iowa.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5.
This movement is notable because the public is crushing the over (88% of bets at DraftKings), yet the number has fallen. At Circa, the under is taking in 31% of bets but 61% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
