Tonight we have a four-pack of Friday Night Lights sweats on tap across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8 p.m. ET: Wyoming at Colorado State (-9.5, 46.5)

Wyoming (2-7) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 49-45 win over New Mexico, winning outright as 8-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Colorado State (6-3) has won four straight and just brushed aside Nevada 38-21, easily covering as 2-point road favorites. This line opened with Colorado State listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with Colorado State, who has home field advantage and the far better won-loss record. However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets we’ve seen Colorado State fall from -10.5 to -9.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Wyoming, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play. Wyoming is only receiving 32% of spread bets but 45% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Friday road dogs are 16-6 ATS (73%) this season. Wyoming has correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game (46.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. In terms of the total, it opened at 46.5, rose to as high as 48.5 and then got hit with an overload of sharp under money, dropping it back down to 46.5. Some shops are down to 46 or even 45.5. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (76% of bets), yet the line has dropped. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 30s with 15 MPH winds (with gusts up to 20-25 MPH), making this a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade. Colorado State is one of the slowest teams in the nation, ranking 120th out of 134 teams in pace.

8 p.m. ET: North Texas at UTSA (-1.5, 72.5)

North Texas (5-4) has dropped three straight games and just fell to Army 14-3, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, UTSA (4-5) has won two of their last three games and just took down Memphis 44-36, winning outright as 7-point home dogs. This line opened with North Texas listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public is backing the Mean Green on the road. However, despite 66% of spread bets taking North Texas we’ve seen this line completely flip to UTSA -1.5. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on UTSA, with wiseguys flipping the number in favor of the unpopular home team. UTSA is only receiving 34% of spread bets in a nationally televised primetime game on ESPN2, offering notable “bet against the public” contrarian value. UTSA enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as they are coming off a bye while North Texas played on Saturday against a physical Army team. UTSA has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a super high total game (72.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the short favorite to cover the number. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could instead elect to play UTSA on the moneyline at -125. UTSA is receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 71.5 to 72.5. The over is only receiving 37% of bets but 73% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. The game will be played indoors at the Alamodome, providing a fast track and ideal conditions for both offenses. UTSA is the fastest team in the country, ranking 1st in pace of play. North Texas is quick as well, ranking 25th.

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