Tonight we have a doubleheader of Friday Night Lights action across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Florida State (-6.5, 59.5) at NC State
Florida State (5-5) has won two of their last three games and just brushed aside Virginia Tech 34-14, covering as 14-point home favorites. On the other hand, NC State (5-5) has dropped three of their last four and just got rolled by Miami 41-7, failing to cover as 16-point home favorites.
This line opened with Florida State listed as a 5-point road favorite.
Sharps have laid the points with the Seminoles, steaming Florida State up from -5 to -6.5.
At DraftKings, Florida State is taking in 59% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “Pro and Joe” bet discrepancy.
However, at Circa the Seminoles are receiving only 22% of spread bets but a whopping 67% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the road chalk out in Vegas.
Florida State has the edge on both sides of the ball, as the Seminoles have the better scoring offense (31.9 PPG vs 27 PPG) and scoring defense (22.2 PPG vs 34 PPG).
In terms of the total, we’ve seen some under money drop the line from 61.5 to 59.5.
At Circa, the under is receiving 50% of bets but a whopping 86% of dollars, a massive sharp money bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 5-10 MPH winds but also some possible rain showers.
10:30 p.m. ET: Hawaii at UNLV (-2.5, 64.5)
Hawaii (7-3) just crushed San Diego State 38-6, easily winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, UNLV (8-2) just edged Utah State 29-26 in overtime but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with UNLV listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public sees two good teams but is happy to lay the short chalk with the home favorite.
However, despite 68% of spread bets at DraftKings backing UNLV, we’ve seen Rebels remain relatively stagnant at -2.5. A few books have ticked up to -3 but a closer look at the juice shows the Hawaii side being juiced up +3 (-115 or -120), signaling liability on the road dog at +3.
Essentially, we are seeing a line freeze in favor of Hawaii, as the line has barely budged despite the public hammering UNLV at home.
Hawaii is the top “bet against the public” play of the night as the Rainbow Warriors are only receiving roughly one-third of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on FS1.
At DraftKings, Hawaii is only receiving 32% of spread bets but a hefty 71% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the road dog.
Friday night road dogs are 16-10 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI this season. Short road dogs +4 or less are 665-595 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2012.
Hawaii has the better defense, allowing 26 PPG compared to UNLV giving up 31 PPG. Hawaii is giving up 349 yards per game (52nd) while UNLV is allowing 449 yards per game (130th).
Hawaii also enjoys a rest advantage, as they are coming off a bye while UNLV played Utah State last week.
Those looking to back Hawaii would be wise to shop around for a +3, as a few key numbers are still out there while the rest of the market is down to +2.5.
The total opened at 64.5 and has remained 64.5, although we are seeing some sneaky liability on the under as the under 64.5 is being juice dup to -115 on gameday, with a few other shops inching down to 64.
At Circa, the under is receiving only 18% of bets but 33% of dollars, a contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a lower scoring game.
This game will be played indoors at Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders.
