Tonight we have a tripleheader of Friday Night Lights action across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Temple at UTSA (-16.5, 56.5)
Temple (3-7) just snapped a two-game losing streak with an 18-15 win over Florida Atlantic in overtime, covering as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, UTSA (5-5) has won two straight and just dismissed North Texas 48-27, easily covering as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with UTSA listed as low as a 15-point home favorite. We’ve seen a steady dose of Pro and Joe support lay the points with the Roadrunners, steaming UTSA up from -15 to -16.5. Some shops are even approaching -17. At DraftKings, UTSA is receiving 74% of spread bets and 90% of spread dollars. At Circa Sports, UTSA is receiving 91% of spread bets and 97% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home team. UTSA enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Friday while Temple played on Saturday. UTSA has a motivational edge as well, as they are one win away from bowl eligibility while Temple has no shot at a bowl game and just fired their head coach. The Roadrunners have a big edge offensively, averaging 31.2 PPG compared to 19.1 PPG for Temple. UTSA is a perfect 5-0 at home while Temple is 0-5 on the road. We’ve also seen some sharp money hit the over, raising the total from 53.5 to 56.5. At Circa, the over is receiving 83% of bets but 95% of dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper pro wagers banking on a higher scoring game. The game will be played indoors at the Alamodome, providing a fast track that benefits the offense. UTSA has won their last three home games by scores of 48-27, 44-36 and 38-24.
10 p.m. ET: UNLV (-7.5, 59.5) at San Jose State
UNLV (8-2, ranked 24th) has won two straight and just crushed San Diego State 41-20 but failed to cover as 22-point home favorites. On the other hand, San Jose State (6-4) is coming off a 42-21 loss to Boise State, failing to cover as 14.5-point home dogs. This line opened with UNLV listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is banking on UNLV to cover, as they have the far better record and ranking. However, despite receiving 59% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen UNLV remain stagnant at -7.5. Some shops have even dipped down to -7 at times throughout the week. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on San Jose State, as the line has stayed the same or moved slightly in their favor despite being the unpopular home dog. San Jose State is only receiving 41% of spread bets but 76% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. San Jose State has buy-low value as a unranked conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent, as well as a buy-low dog off a blowout loss against a sell-high favorite off a blowout win. We’ve also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 61.5 to 59.5. At Circa, the under is only receiving 50% of bets but a whopping 85% of dollars, a massive smart money under split. Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 60s with rain and 10 MPH winds with gusts up to 20 MPH. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.
