Tonight we have a trio of Friday Night Lights matchups on tap across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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9 p.m. ET: Tulane at Memphis (-3.5, 54.5)
Tulane (6-2) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to UTSA 48-26 and losing outright as 6-point road favorites. On the other hand, Memphis (8-1, ranked 22nd) has won two straight and just brushed aside Rice 38-14, easily covering as 14-point road favorites.
This line opened with Memphis listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 80% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Memphis at home.
However, despite receiving such overwhelming support we’ve seen Memphis fall from -6.5 to -3.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Tigers to begin with? Because respected pro money has sided with the Green Wave plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of road dog Tulane.
Another reason for the big adjustment is the fact that Memphis QB Brendon Lewis is questionable with a lower body injury.
Tulane is the top “bet against the public” play of then night as the Green Wave are only receiving 20% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
At DraftKings, Tulane is taking in 20% of spread bets but 39% of spread dollars. At Circa, Tulane is receiving 29% of spread bets but a hefty 65% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 657-580 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2012. Friday night road dogs are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season and 36-22 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI since 2024.
Tulane has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 69-59 ATS (54%) this season and 177-150 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2024.
Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 55.5 to 54.5, with some shops even touching 54.
This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (81% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in 40% of bets but a whopping 97% of dollars, further evidence of the sharps out in Vegas banking on a lower scoring game.
9 p.m. ET: Northwestern at USC (-14, 51.5)
Northwestern (5-3) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, losing to Nebraska 28-21 and pushing as 7-point road dogs. On the other hand, USC (6-2, ranked 20th) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just beat Nebraska 21-17 but failed to cover as 4.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with USC listed as a 15-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Trojans at home.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets, we’ve seen USC fall from -15 to -14, with some shops even down to -13.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Northwestern, as the line has moved toward the Wildcats despite being the unpopular play.
Northwestern is offering contrarian value as the Wildcats are only receiving roughly one-third tickets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on FOX.
At Circa, Northwestern is receiving 47% of spread bets but a hefty 71% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the pros out in Vegas backing the big road dog.
Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 69-59 ATS (54%) this season and 177-150 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2024.
Friday night road dogs are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season and 36-22 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI since 2024. If the Friday night road dog is getting 14-points or more they improve to 7-2 ATS (78%) with a 49% ROI this season.
When two teams from the Big Ten face off in conference play, the dog is 27-20 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Northwestern has correlative betting value as a big dog in a relatively low total game (51.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover the number.
The Wildcats enjoy a rest advantage as they just came off a bye last week while the Trojans just played on the road at Nebraska.
