Tonight we have a handful of Friday Night Lights matchups on tap across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: South Florida at North Texas (-2.5, 66.5)
South Florida (4-1, ranked 24th) just crushed Charlotte 54-26, covering as 27.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, North Texas (5-0) just outlasted South Alabama 36-22, covering as 13-point home favorites.
This line opened with North Texas listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home field advantage, why is an unranked team favored over a ranked team?
The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and 68% of spread bets are taking the points with South Florida.
However, despite South Florida receiving such lopsided support we’ve actually seen this line move further toward North Texas -1.5 to -2.5.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of North Texas, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, North Texas is receiving 32% of spread bets and 48% of spread dollars. At Circa, North Texas is taking in 45% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Those looking to follow the sharp North Texas move but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could instead target the Mean Green on the moneyline at -130.
At Circa, North Texas is receiving 55% of moneyline bets but a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp split and further evidence of the desert wiseguys in Vegas backing the Mean Green to win straight up.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 2-1 (67%) straight up this season and 55-29 (65%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2017.
North Texas enjoys a rest advantage, as the Mean Green were off last week while South Florida played Charlotte.
9 p.m. ET: Fresno State (-6.5, 47.5) at Colorado State
Fresno State (5-1) just held off Nevada 20-17 but failed to cover as 12-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Colorado State (1-4) just got rolled by San Diego State 45-24, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 6.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the road chalk and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Fresno State, who has the far better won-loss record.
However, despite receiving 70% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Fresno State remain stagnant at -6.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expected to see them rise up from -6.5 to -7 or -7.5. The fact that the line hasn’t budged despite heavy Fresno State support indicates a sharp line freeze on Colorado State plus the points at home.
Colorado State has is the top contrarian play of the night, as the Rams are only receiving 30% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet primetime game.
At Circa, Colorado State is taking in 43% of spread bets but a whopping 94% of spread dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.
Home conference dogs, like the Rams here, are 31-23 ATS (57%) this season and 143-117 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
Colorado State is in a buy-low spot as an unpopular dog on a three-game losing streak against a sell-high popular favorite on a five-game winning streak.
The Rams enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on October 3rd compared to Fresno State last playing on October 4th.
