Tonight we have a tripleheader of Friday Night Lights action on the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
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8 p.m. ET: Northwestern at Maryland (-11, 45.5)
Northwestern (2-3) just fell to Indiana 41-24 last week, failing to cover as 13-point home dogs. Similarly, Maryland (3-2) is coming off a bye after having lost to Indiana 42-28 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Maryland listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the double-digit spread and 64% of spread bets are laying the points with the Terps at home. This lopsided support pushed Maryland up from -10 to -11.5. That’s when we saw some buy-back on Northwestern at an inflated price, dropping several shops back down from +11.5 to +11. Some shops are even inching down to +10.5. Northwestern offers notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 36% of spread bets (but 40% of spread dollars) in a heavily bet primetime game on FSI. The Wildcats have further value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Northwestern also has correlative betting value as a double-digit dog in a low total game (45.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the bigger favorite to cover.
9 p.m. ET: UNLV (-19, 66.5) at Utah State
UNLV (4-1) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Syracuse 44-41 in overtime as 5.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Utah State (1-4) has dropped four in a row and just got rolled by Boise State 62-30, failing to cover as 28-point road dogs. This line opened with UNLV listed as a 19-point road favorite. The public is expecting a UNLV blowout and 70% of spread bets are laying the points with the Rebels. However, despite this lopsided support the line hasn’t budged off UNLV -19. Some shops have briefly risen to -19.5 before coming back down to -19. Some shops are even inching down to -18.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on Utah State plus the points, who also have notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 30% of spread bets (but 36% of spread dollars) in a heavily bet late night game on CBSSN. Sharps have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 64.5 to 66.5. The over is receiving 53% of bets but a whopping 76% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp over split. UNLV is averaging 44.4 PPG on offense while Utah State is allowing 41.4 PPG on defense.
10:30 p.m. ET: Utah (-5.5, 46.5) at Arizona State
Utah (4-1, ranked 16th) is coming off a bye after having just lost their first game of the year, falling to Arizona 23-10 as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arizona State (4-1) just took down Kansas 35-31, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Utah listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is banking on well-rested Utah to bounce back after their first loss and 74% of spread bets are laying the points with the the Utes. This lopsided betting pushed Utah up from -4 to -6. That’s when we saw some buyback on Arizona State +6, dropping the line back down to +5.5. One big variable here is the status of Utah QB Cameron Rising, who is questionable after missing the past three games with a hand injury. Arizona State is the top contrarian play of the night, receiving only 26% of spread bets (but 33% of spread dollars) in the most heavily bet game of the night which is nationally televised on ESPN. The Sun Devils have buy-low value as an unranked home conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent, as well as a “dog who can score” system match (33.2 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering.
