Tonight we have a tripleheader of Friday Night Lights matchups to choose from across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minute and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: California at Virginia Tech (-6, 50.5)
California (5-2) just held off North Carolina 21-18 but failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech (2-5) just got rolled by Georgia Tech 35-20, failing to cover as 14-point road dogs.
This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this even ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Virginia Tech creep up from -4.5 to -6, with some shops even touching -6.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have laid the points with the Hokies at home.
At DraftKings, Virginia Tech is taking 51% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Hokies are receiving 38% of spread bets but 50% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Virginia Tech has fishy buy-low value as a team with a sub .500 record who has lost two straight against a sell-high above .500 team coming off a win.
The Hokies also enjoy a rest advantage, as they were off last week while California played North Carolina and now must travel across country on a short week.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up slightly from 49.5 to 50.5.
At Circa, the over is taking in 58% of bets but a hefty 80% of dollars, a notable sharp bet split and further evidence of the pros out in Vegas banking on a higher scoring game.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for mid 40s with partly cloudy skies and mild 2-5 MPH winds.
10 p.m. ET: Boise State (-21, 51) at Nevada
Boise State (5-2) just brushed aside UNLV 56-31, easily covering as 13-point home favorites. On the other hand, Nevada (1-6) just came up short against New Mexico 24-22 but managed to cover as 13.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Boise State listed as a 21.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and they expect Boise State to win and cover in a blowout.
However, despite receiving 66% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Boise State dip slightly from -21.5 to -21.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Boise State to begin with? Because respected smart money has jumped on Nevada plus the hook, dropping the line in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Nevada is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the night as the Wolfpack are only taking in roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet late game on CBS Sports Network.
Nevada has additional correlative betting as a big dog in relatively low total game, with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big chalk to cover.
The Wolfpack have buy-low value an an unpopular dog on a five-game losing streak against a sell-high trendy favorite who has won two straight.
Home conference dogs are 53-44 ATS (55%) with a 4% ROI this season and 165-138 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the “hazmat” home dog would be wise to shop around, as FanDuel is still offering Hokies +21.5 (-120) while the rest of the market is down to +21.
