Happy Halloween! Tonight we have a trio of spooky Week 10 College Football sweats on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Memphis (-13.5, 48.5) at Rice
Memphis (7-1, ranked 25th) just outlasted South Florida 34-31, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Rice (4-4) just edged Connecticut 37-34 in double overtime, winning outright as 10-point home dogs.
This line opened with Memphis listed as a 14.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 62% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Memphis, who has the far better won-loss record and ranking.
However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen Memphis fall from -14.5 to -13.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Rice plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
Rice has notable “bet against the public” value as the Owls are receiving less than 40% of spread bets in a heavily bet nationally televised game on ESPN2.
At DraftKings, Rice is taking in 38% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor.
Rice has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 62-52 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 170-143 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since the 2024 season.
The Owls have additional betting system value as a home conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Home conference dogs are 64-49 ATS (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 176-143 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
Rice has correlative betting value as a big dog in a relatively low total game (48.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the big number.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the unpopular home dog would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings and BetMGM are still offering Rice +14 (-115) while the rest of the market is down to 13.5.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 48.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving only 14% of bets but 54% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 56% of bets and 72% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy split in favor of a lower scoring game.
7:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina at Syracuse (-2.5, 45.5)
North Carolina (2-5) just came up short against Virginia 17-16 in overtime but easily covered as 11.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Syracuse (3-5) just got rolled by Georgia Tech 41-16, failing to cover as 17-point road dogs.
This line opened as low as a pick’em, with some shops opening Syracuse a slight 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Orange, driving Syracuse up to 2.5-point home favorite.
At Circa, Syracuse is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk by backing the Orange to win straight up on the moneyline at -130.
Syracuse has the edge offensively, averaging 19.6 points per game and 398.4 yards per game compared to North Carolina averaging 14.5 points per game and 280.6 points per game.
Wiseguys have also hit the under, as the total has been bet down from 47.5 to 45.5, with some shops even inching down to 45 or even 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 38% of bets and 54% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
North Carolina is one of the slowest teams in College Football, averaging only 62 plays per game (126th out of 136 teams).
Unders are 19-13 (59%) with a 14% ROI on Friday night this season. If the Friday night total falls at least one full point, the under improves to 10-4 (71%) with a 37% ROI this season.
