Tonight we have a loaded Friday Night Lights slate on tap across the College Football gridiron with five games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky at Delaware (-2.5, 61.5)
Western Kentucky (4-1) just outlasted Missouri State 27-22, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Delaware (3-1) just demolished FIU 38-16, easily winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Delaware listed as a 2-point home favorite.
The public sees two good teams with a short spread and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket count at DraftKings, we’ve seen Delaware creep up from -2 to -2.5. In addition, the Blue Hens are being juiced up -2.5 (-115), signaling further liability on the home chalk while some books have even touched -3.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that while the public is split, the bigger sharp wagers are laying the chalk with the Blue Hens at home.
Those looking to follow the sharp 50/50 line move but also mitigate some risk in the event of a close game that may not cover the spread could instead elect to play Delaware on the moneyline at -140.
At Circa, Delaware is receiving 23% of moneyline bets but 35% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the sharper wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing a Blue Hens straight up victory.
Delaware enjoys a notable rest advantage, as the Blue Hens are coming off a bye last week while Western Kentucky is playing their second straight road game.
The Blue Hens also have correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (61.5), with the more expected points scored making it easer for the favorite to cover.
10 p.m. ET: New Mexico at San Jose State (-2.5, 58.5)
New Mexico (3-1) just brushed aside New Mexico State 38-20, taking care of business as 16.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, San Jose State (1-3) just came up short against Stanford 30-29 but managed to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with San Jose State listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with San Jose State, as the Spartans are receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving a slight majority of tickets we’ve seen San Jose State fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of New Mexico, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, New Mexico is receiving 46% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 638-558 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2021. Friday night road dogs are 7-1 ATS this season and 30-15 ATS (67%) with a 25% ROI since 2024.
New Mexico is also a “dog who can score” system match (averaging 30 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
Those looking to back the road dog would be wise to shop around and/or wait for the key number of +3, as most shops are juicing up the San Jose State side (-2.5 at -115), signaling a possible rise up to 3 between now and kickoff.
Sharps also seem to be expecting a bit of a shootout, as the total has ticked up from 55.5 to 58.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 56% of bets but a hefty 76% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Weather looks ideal at Spartan Stadium, with the forecast calling for low 60s, clear skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds.
