Tonight we have a handful of Friday Night Lights matchups across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Colorado at Houston (-4.5, 44.5)
Colorado (1-1) just brushed aside Delaware 31-7 last week, barely covering as 23.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Houston (2-0) just took down Rice 35-9, covering as 13.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Houston listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Early in the week, we saw Houston get steamed up as high as -6.5. Once that high-water mark was reached, we saw some buyback on Colorado as an inflated dog, dropping the line back down to Houston -4.5, where it stands now. Although some shops are also hanging Houston -5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been toward Houston as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor.
At DraftKings, Houston is taking in 62% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Sharps have also targeted the Cougars to win outright (-200), as they are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars at Circa out in Vegas.
We’ve seen this total tick up from 43.5 to 44.5, indicating some respected money playing the over. At DraftKings, nearly 90% of bets and dollars are taking the over, a lopsided public and sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for mid 80s with clear skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds.
9 p.m. ET: Kansas State (-1, 54.5) at Arizona
Kansas State (1-2) just came up short against Army 24-21 last week, losing outright as 17.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arizona (2-0) just crushed Weber State 48-3, covering as 32.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Arizona listed as a 1-point home favorite.
The public thinks that line is way too short and 58% of spread bets are backing Arizona, who has a better record and enjoys home field advantage.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Arizona we’ve actually seen this line move in favor of Kansas State, who has flipped from a 1-point road dog to a 1-point road favorite. Some shops are even up to Kansas State -1.5. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Kansas State.
Kansas State has notable “bet against the public” value as they are receiving less than half the tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on FOX.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk by playing Kansas State to win straight up on the moneyline (-115). At DraftKings, Kansas State is receiving 45% of moneyline bets and 60% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy.
Kansas State has fishy buy-low value as a below .500 team coming off a loss in which they failed to cover against a sell-high above .500 team coming off a win in which they did cover.
In terms of the total, it hasn’t budged much off the opener of 54.5, although some shops are slightly juicing up the under 54.5 (-115). This lack of upward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (65% of bets at DraftKings), yet the line hasn’t risen. This indicates some line freeze liability on a lower scoring game. At Circa, the under is taking in 38% of bets but 48% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split.
The forecast calls for warm temperatures in the mid to high 80s, partly cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds.
