Tonight we have a pair of Friday Night Lights matchups to choose from across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Tulsa at Oklahoma State (-9.5, 54.5)
Tulsa (1-2) just came up short against Navy 42-23, failing to cover as 13.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (1-1) just got crushed by Oregon 69-3, failing to cover as 28.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as high as a 14-point home favorite.
The public is relatively split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this split ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen Oklahoma State tumble from -14 to -9.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the big respected pro action has sided with Tulsa plus the points.
At DraftKings, Tulsa is receiving 48% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars. At Circa, Tulsa is taking in 56% of spread bets and a whopping 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Friday night road dogs are 6-1 ATS this season and 29-15 ATS (66%) with a 25% ROI since the start of last season.
Those looking to back the sharp Tulsa move would be wise to shop around as a few outlier books like DraftKings are still offering Tulsa +10 (-115), while the rest of the market is mostly Tulsa +9.5.
Sharps have also quietly leaned under, dropping the total from 55.5 to 54.5.
This downward movement is notable because the public is playing the over (62% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is receiving 44% of bets and 63% of dollars, further evidence of pro money leaning toward a lower scoring game.
8 p.m. ET: Iowa (-2, 45.5) at Rutgers
Iowa (2-1) just dominated UMass 47-7, covering as 35-point home favorites. Similarly, Rutgers (3-0) just destroyed Norfolk State 60-0, covering as 44.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Iowa listed as a 2-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 72% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window and laying the points with the Hawkeyes.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Iowa remain stagnant at -2 and even dip down to -1.5 at some shops.
Normally, if a team is getting such heavy support you would expect to see them rise up from -2 to -2.5 or -3. The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite overwhelming public action in favor of Iowa signals a sharp line freeze on Rutgers plus the points, as the line has either stayed the same or moved slightly in favor of the Scarlet Knights despite being the unpopular play.
Rutgers is the top “bet against the public” play of the night, as the Scarlet Knights are only receiving 28% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on FOX.
At DraftKings, Rutgers is taking in 28% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars. At Circa, Rutgers is receiving 35% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home team plus the points.
Home conference dogs, like Rutgers here, are 340-295 ATS (54%) with a 2% ROI since 2022.
Those looking to go contrarian would be wise to shop around, as BetMGM is offering Rutgers +2.5 (-115) while the rest of the market sits at Rutgers +2 or +1.5.
