Tonight we have a trio of Friday Night Lights matchups across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Florida State (-7, 60.5) at Virginia
Florida State (3-0, ranked 8th) just destroyed Kent State 66-10, covering as 44.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Virginia (3-1) just brushed aside Stanford 48-20, covering as 16.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Florida State listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared of the big spread and 82% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Seminoles.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Florida State fall from -7.5 to -7. In addition, most of the market is juicing up Virginia +7 (-115 or -120) and even touching Virginia +6.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding Florida State to begin with? Because respected smart money has jumped on the home dog plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of Virginia.
Virginia is the top “bet against the public” play of the night as the Cavs are only receiving 18% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game (ESPN).
At DraftKings, Virginia is receiving 18% of spread bets and 30% of spread dollars. At Circa, Virginia is taking in 39% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home dog.
Virginia has additional buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 136-116 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2024.
The Cavs have additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
9 p.m. ET: TCU at Arizona State (-3, 54.5)
TCU (3-0, ranked 24th) just held off SMU 35-24, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona State (3-1) just upset Baylor 27-24, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Arizona State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring home field advantage, why is an unranked team favored over an undefeated ranked team?
The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and 70% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with TCU.
However, despite the public backing TCU we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Arizona State -2.5 to -3. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Arizona State, as the line has moved in favor of the Sun Devils despite being the unpopular play.
Arizona State has rare “bet against the public” value as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game (FOX).
At DraftKings, Arizona State is taking in 30% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, Arizona State is receiving 50% of spread bets but a whopping 79% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.
The Sun Devils have buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Those looking to follow the sharp Arizona State move but also wary of a close win that may not cover the key number could instead elect to play the Sun Devils on the moneyline at -150.
At DraftKings, Arizona State is receiving 36% of moneyline bets and 43% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona State is taking in 43% of moneyline bets and 58% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian wiseguy split in favor of a straight up Sun Devils victory at home.
Fishy unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 53-28 (65%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2017.
