Tonight the College Football Playoffs come to an end as Miami faces Indiana in the National Championship game. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s Super Bowl of College Football using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Miami vs Indiana (-7.5, 47.5)
This National Championship matchup will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, home of the Miami Dolphins.
Miami (13-2) is the 10-seed and just outlasted Ole Miss 31-27 in the semifinals, covering as 3.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Indiana (15-0) is the 1-seed and just dominated Oregon 56-22 in the semifinals, easily covering as 3.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Indiana listed as a 7.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is too low and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the undefeated Hoosiers.
Early in the week, we saw this lopsided support drive Indiana up from -7.5 to -8.5.
However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen a heavy wave of sharp buyback hit Miami, dropping the Hurricanes back down to +8.5 to +7.5.
Late movement leading up to kickoff is especially important because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. Several shops are even juicing up Miami +7.5 (-115) on game day, signaling further liability on the unpopular dog plus the points.
Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze in favor of the Hurricanes, as the line is right back to where it opened despite the public hammering Indiana.
Miami offers heightened “bet against the public” value as the Hurricanes are only receiving 32% of spread bets at DraftKings in a massively popular and heavily bet nationally televised primetime playoff game on ESPN.
Miami has betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match (averaging 30.6 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
Miami also enjoys de-facto home field advantage, as the game will be played in their backyard.
National Championship game dogs in which the line either stays the same or moves in their favor, which matches Miami tonight, have gone 4-1 ATS since 2015.
The Hurricanes enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on January 8th while Indiana last played on January 9th.
Those looking to go contrarian and back the Hurricanes would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings is still offering Miami +8.5 (-115) while the rest of the market sits at +7.5.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down slightly from 48.5 to 47.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 27% of bets and 40% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 22% of bets and a notable 66% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Both of these teams play elite defense, with Indiana allowing 11.9 PPG (2nd) and Miami giving up 14.8 PPG (5th).
Both teams also rank toward the bottom half in pace of play, with Miami ranking 66th and Indiana 79th (out of 136 total teams).
The forecast calls for low 60s/high 50s with partly cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds.
