Happy New Year’s Eve! Today we have a five-pack of College Football games on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for the biggest of them all, a College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup between Miami and Ohio State, using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Miami vs Ohio State (-9.5, 40.5)
This College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, home of the Dallas Cowboys.
Miami (11-2) is the 10-seed and just upset Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round of the playoffs, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Ohio State (12-1) is the 2-seed and just fell to Indiana 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship game, losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 9.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and 58% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Buckeyes.
Early in the week, we saw Ohio State tick up from -9.5 to -10. However, once we reached the key number of 10 we saw some respected buyback on Miami +10, dropping the line back down to Ohio State -9.5 where it stands on gameday.
Miami offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Hurricanes are only receiving 42% of spread bets in a nationally televised primetime playoff game on ESPN.
At Circa, Miami is taking in 47% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the dog plus the points from the wiseguys in the desert.
The Hurricanes have additional correlative betting value as a near double-digit dog in a low total game (40.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover the number.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42 to 40.5.
This downward movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over at DraftKings (67% of bets), yet the line fell. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the under.
At Circa, the under is receiving 64% of bets and 74% of dollars, signaling heavy one-way action in favor of a lower scoring game out in Vegas.
These are two of the best defenses in College Football, with Ohio State only allowing 8.8 PPG (1st) and Miami giving up 13.8 PPG (4th).
College Football Champion Odds (DraftKings)
Ohio State +190
Indiana +320
Georgia +475
Oregon +750
Texas Tech +850
Alabama +1800
Miami +2200
Ole Miss +2500
