The Final Four of the College Football Playoff kicks off tonight with a semifinal showdown between Miami and Ole Miss. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Miami (-3, 52.5) vs Ole Miss
This College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, home of the Arizona Cardinals.
Miami (12-2) is the 10-seed and just upset Ohio State 24-14 in the quarterfinals, winning outright as 7.5-point neutral site dogs. Similarly, Ole Miss (13-1) is the 6-seed and just took down Georgia 39-34, winning outright as 6.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Miami listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite.
Early in the week, we saw Miami creep up from -3 to -3.5. However, since that time (and especially over the past 24-48 hours) we’ve seen sharp buyback on Ole Miss plus the hook, as the Rebels have fallen back down from +3.5 to +3 at most shops across the market. Essentially, late movement seems to be breaking back toward Ole Miss.
At DraftKings, the Hurricanes are receiving 42% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars. At Circa, Miami is taking in 45% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Hurricanes.
Gameday movement will be critical to monitor, as it appears as though there is a ping-pong disagreement between sharp money playing Miami -3 and conflicting wiseguy action on Ole Miss +3.5. Keep in mind that 3 is the most common key number in football and the books stand to gain or loss massive profits based on where they close the number.
If this line closes at a flat 3 “painted” across the board, that will lend credence to sharp money siding with Ole Miss plus the hook. However, it if closes at 3.5, that will indicate further liability on Miami, with oddsmakers mostly unconcerned about giving out the hook to Rebels backers.
While bettors can’t control the outcome of the game, they can shop for the best line and put themselves in the best position to cash the ticket. With this in mind, Miami backers would be wise to hop on the Hurricanes -3 before it might tick back up to -3.5. On the other hand, Ole Miss backers must do their job and locate a book still offering the hook, that way if the Rebels lose by 3 they are still able to cover.
While most of the market sits at Miami -3, there are a few of outlier books still offering Ole Miss +3.5 (-120) on gameday.
Ole Miss offers value as a “dog who can score” system match, averaging 36.8 PPG (compared to Miami averaging 30.6 PPG). This increases the chances that Ole Miss can put up points and keep pace or earn a backdoor cover.
College Football playoff dogs have barked loudly so far in the tournament, going 6-2 ATS (75%) and 5-3 (63%) straight up.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up slightly from 51.5 to 52.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 44% of bets and 48% of dollars. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 53% of bets and a whopping 95% of dollars.
Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
