Today we have the final College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup on tap as Notre Dame faces Georgia in the AllState Sugar Bowl. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-1, 45.5) vs Georgia
This game will be played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, home of the New Orleans Saints. It was rescheduled from yesterday to today following the horrific terror attack on Bourbon Street. Our hearts go out to the victims and their families that were affected by the senseless tragedy.
Notre Dame (12-1) is the 7-seed and just took down Indiana 27-17 in the first round of the playoffs, covering as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, Georgia (11-2) is the 2-seed and coming off a bye after beating Texas 22-19 in overtime in the SEC championship, winning outright as 3-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. At DraftKings, a national public book, 61% of spread bets are backing the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, at Circa, a sharp book that caters to pro bettors, 53% of spread bets come down on the Irish. While the bet splits are slightly different at both books, one constant has remained the same: we’ve seen steady, one-way line movement in the direction of Notre Dame, who have flipped from a 1-point neutral site dog to a 1-point neutral site favorite. This indicates a sharp “dog to favorite” line move in favor of the Irish.
Just yesterday, some books were still at a pick’em or even showing Georgia -1. Now the entire market has moved to Notre Dame -1. Late movement is especially important because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. Essentially, we are seeing sharp reverse line movement on Notre Dame at DraftKings, as well as a sharp “50/50” line move on the Irish at Circa.
Notre Dame offers heightened contrarian value as they are only taking in 39% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet nationally televised game on ESPN. Those looking to follow the wiseguy move on the Irish but also looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could elect to target Notre Dame on the moneyline at -115/-120. At Circa, the Irish are receiving 45% of moneyline bets but a hefty 72% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro bettors out in Vegas playing Notre Dame to win straight up.
Notre Dame has the better offense (38.8 PPG vs 33.2 PPG) and superior defense (13.9 PPG vs 20.4 PPG). Keep in mind that Georgia’s starting QB Carson Beck is out for this game with an elbow injury and sophomore Gunner Stockton will start in his place. Stockton will be making his first career start after going 12-16 for 71 yards and an interception (plus 8 carries for 8 yards) in relief of Beck in the SEC championship. On the other side, Notre Dame’s starting QB Riley Leonard is a senior with years of experience. Rest vs rust is also a factor to consider, as Georgia has been off since December 7th while Notre Dame played on December 20th and already has a playoff win under their belt.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen relatively steady over movement. It opened at 44 and has risen to 45.5. Some books are now creeping up to 46 on gameday. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 58% of bets but only 50% of dollars. However, at Circa the over is receiving 54% of bets but 73% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a higher scoring game. This game will be played indoors on a fast track, which bodes well for offensive output.
