The College Football Playoff semifinals kick off tonight as Notre Dame faces off against Penn State in the Capital One Orange Bowl. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-1, 45.5) vs Penn State
This final four matchup will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, home of the Miami Dolphins. Notre Dame (13-1) is the 7-seed and just took down Georgia 23-10 in the quarterfinals, covering as 1.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Penn State (13-2) is the 6-seed and just dismissed Boise State 31-14 in the quarterfinals, covering as 11.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Early money laid the points with the Irish, driving Notre Dame up from -1.5 to -2.5. However, over the past 48-hours we’ve seen some respected buyback on Penn State +2.5, dropping the line back down to Notre Dame -1. At DraftKings, the Irish are taking in 65% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, Notre Dame is receiving 73% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Notre Dame, indicating both Pro and Joe support on the Irish.
Those looking to back the Irish in a tight game that may not cover the number could instead look to play Notre Dame on the moneyline at -115. At DraftKings, the Irish are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 59% of moneyline dollars. Chalk has been red-hot in the College Football Playoffs, with favorites going a perfect 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS.
Game day movement will be important to monitor, specifically in terms of where this line closes. If we see it creep down toward a pick’em, that will indicate further late breaking smart money backing the underdog Nittany Lions. If we see it rise back up to -1.5 across the board, that will signal late money siding with the Irish. On the injury front, Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love is “good to go” after suffering a knee injury earlier in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter is a “game time decision” after dealing with an upper body injury, although head coach James Franklin said “we anticipate Abdul playing.”
In terms of the total, we’ve seen one-way movement in favor of the under as the line opened as high as 47 and has now fallen down to 45.5. Some books are even down to 45. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 62% of bets and 68% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 95% of bets and 81% of dollars.
Both teams possess dominant defenses, as Notre Dame is only giving 13.6 PPG (2nd best in the nation) and Penn State is allowing 15.8 PPG (5th). Both teams rank toward the bottom in terms of pace of play, with the Nittany Lions ranking 82nd and the Irish 112th. Both teams also like to run the ball, which chews up the clock and benefits the under. Penn State ranks 31st in the highest percentage of run plays per game. Notre Dame ranks 41st. This game will be played outdoors and the forecast calls for mid 50s with 8 MPH winds and gusts up to 14 MPH.
