The College Football Playoff semifinals continue tonight with a primetime showdown between Oregon and Indiana. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s matchup using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Oregon vs Indiana (-3.5, 48.5)
This College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, home of the Atlanta Falcons. The winner will face Miami in the National Championship game on Monday January 19th at Hard Rock stadium in Miami, Florida.
Oregon (13-1) is the 5-seed and just shutout Texas Tech 23-0 in the quarterfinals, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Indiana (14-0) is the 1-seed and just dominated Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals, easily covering as 7.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Indiana listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 74% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the undefeated Hoosiers.
Early in the week, we saw this lopsided betting push Indiana up from -4 to -4.5. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but one-way buyback on Oregon, dropping Indiana back down from -4.5 to -3.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Indiana to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Oregon plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Ducks plus the points.
Oregon is the top “bet against the public” play of the College Football semifinals as the Ducks are only taking in roughly one-quarter of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
The Ducks offer betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match, averaging 36.4 PPG, which makes it more likely they can keep pace or back door cover.
Oregon has additional betting system value as a conference dog, as both teams hail from the Big Ten. Typically, conference dogs bark louder due to the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspect.
Oregon may also enjoy a motivational edge here, as this is a “revenge” game for the Ducks. Oregon lost to Indiana 30-20 as 7-point home favorites in early October, their only loss of the season.
Dogs have gone 6-3 ATS and 5-4 straight up in the College Football Playoffs thus far.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen the number tick up from 46.5 to 48.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 67% of bets and 72% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 79% of bets and 77% of dollars.
Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
This game will be played inside a dome, which provides a fast track for offensive output devoid of any inclement weather conditions.
College Football Playoff Champion (DraftKings)
Indiana +120
Miami +180
Oregon +310
