College Football is finally here! Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for pair of Week 0 games today using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Iowa State vs Kansas State (-3, 51.5)
Iowa State went 11-3 last season, finishing with a 15th overall ranking. Oddsmakers expect the Cyclones to take a step back this season, as their win total is set at 7.5 with the under juiced to -135 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, Kansas State went 9-4 last season, finishing unranked. The Wildcats’ win total is set at 8.5 this season, with the over slightly juiced up to -115.
For today’s season opener in Dublin, Ireland, Kansas State (ranked 17th) opened as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is too short and 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Wildcats.
However, despite receiving more than two-thirds of spread bets, we’ve seen Kansas State fall from -3.5 to -3.
Why would oddsmakers drop the number to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing the Wildcats to begin with? Because respected smart money has scooped up Iowa State (ranked 22nd) plus the hook, dropping the Cyclones down from +3.5 to +3.
Iowa State is the top contrarian play of the day, as the Cyclones are receiving less than one-third of tickets in the most heavily bet game of the day. At Circa, Iowa State is taking in 37% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split from the wiseguys out in the desert.
Iowa State has additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Those looking to go contrarian and back Iowa State would be wise to shop around for the hook, as a couple books are still offering a juiced up +3.5 (-115 or -120), while much of the market sits at +3.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up up from 49 to 51.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 67% of bets and 74% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 65% of bets and a whopping 92% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue here, as the forecast calls for low 70s with mild 5 MPH winds.
7:30 p.m. ET: Stanford at Hawaii (-2.5, 50.5)
Stanford finished a disappointing 3-9 last season. Oddsmakers aren’t expecting much improvement from the Cardinal as their win total is set at 3.5 with the under heavily juiced to -190. On the other hand, Hawaii went 5-7 last season and their win total sits at 6.5 with the under heavily juiced to -190.
For tonight’s season opener, Stanford opened as a 2.5-point road favorite. However, since that time we’ve seen an overload of respected action get down hard on Hawaii, moving the Rainbow Warriors from a 2.5-point home dog to a 2.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the home team.
At DraftKings, Hawaii is taking in 59% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars. At Circa, Hawaii is receiving 82% of spread bets and a hefty 98% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
For those looking to follow the sharp Hawaii move but also mitigate some risk around the key number of 3, the Rainbow Warriors could be worth a look on the moneyline at -130. Many pros look to “moneyline short favorites,” especially with the oddsmakers expecting a close game to begin with.
At DraftKings, Hawaii is receiving 45% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Hawaii is taking in 81% of moneyline bets and an overwhelming 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp split in favor of a straight up Rainbow Warriors win.
We’ve seen this total fall from 55.5 to 50.5. A notable factor here is the weather, with forecasts calling for 15 MPH winds.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 32% of bets and 54% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 64% of bets and 93% of dollars, further evidence of respected smart money backing a lower scoring game.
