Today we kick off the first official Saturday of the College Football season with a handful of games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: North Carolina vs TCU (-8.5, 46)
This neutral site matchup will be played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.
North Carolina went 4-8 last season and the oddsmakers expect more of the same this year as their win total sits at 4.5 with the over juiced slightly to -115 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, TCU finished 9-4 (ranked 25th) and oddsmakers expect the Horned Frogs to take a step back this season, as their win total sits at 7.5 with the under juiced heavily at -150.
This line opened with TCU listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Horned Frogs, pushing TCU up from -6.5 to -8.5 across the market.
At DraftKings, TCU is taking in 61% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. At Circa, TCU is receiving 59% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in their favor.
TCU’s main advantage may rest offensively, as the Horned Frogs ranked 27th in total offense last season while the Tar Heels ranked 129th. North Carolina will also be without Defensive Coordinator Steve Belichick, who is away with an undisclosed medical issue.
Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 49 to 46, with some shops inching down to 45.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 46% of bets and 57% of dollars. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 64% of bets and 65% of dollars on the under.
3:30 p.m. ET: NC State at Virginia (-4, 51.5)
NC State went 8-5 last season and oddsmakers are expecting some slight regression this season as the Wolfpack’s win total for this year sits at 7.5 at DraftKings with the under juiced to -140. Meanwhile, Virginia went an impressive 11-3 last season (ranked 16th) and oddsmakers are expecting a slight tick backward as their win total for this year sits at 7.5 with the over juiced to -150 or 8.5 with the under juiced to -175.
This line opened with Virginia listed as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with Virginia at home, as the Cavaliers are receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Virginia fall from -5.5 to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on NC State, as the line has moved in favor of the Wolfpack despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, NC State is receiving 77% of spread bets and a whopping 89% of spread dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 53.5 to 51.5. At Circa, the under is taking in 86% of bets and 95% of bets, a heavy one-way Pro and Joe split in favor of a lower scoring game from the Vegas pros.
7 p.m. ET: Hawaii at Stanford (-4, 48.5)
Hawaii finished 9-4 last season and oddsmakers are expecting the Rainbow Warrior to regress this season, as their win total sits at 7.5 with the under juiced heavily to -150 at DraftKings. On the other hand, Stanford went 4-8 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar result this year as the Cardinal’s win total rests at 3.5 with the over juiced to -125.
This line opened with Stanford listed as a 3-point home favorite.
Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Cardinal, pushing Stanford up from -3 to -4.
At DraftKings, Stanford is receiving 57% of spread bets and 67% of spread bets, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating a slight public lean but also one-way sharp action in their favor.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 48.5. This downward movement is especially significant because the public is hammering the over (70% of bets at DraftKings) yet the total fell, signaling sharp reverse line movement on a lower scoring game. At Circa, the under is taking in 88% of bets and 96% of dollars, a heavy one-way split in favor of the under from the wiseguys in the desert.
