Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 29, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Shane Baz’s teams are 4-14 (-17.07 units) when he starts as a favorite of -132 or more since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-140 at ATH)
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 175-96 SU (+40.35 units, ROI: 14.9%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-195 vs CIN)
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 273-177 in their last 450 tries (+45.29 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-223 vs COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 79-121 for -45.83 units and an ROI of -22.9%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+121 at NYM), BOSTON GAME 2 (+116 at NYY)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 134-196 start for -22.18 after losing about 31.5 units over the last ten weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+206 at ATL), ATHLETICS (+131 vs BAL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 84-46 for -17.70 units, ROI -13.6%!
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-195 vs CIN)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 41-21 but for -10.8 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-223 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 34-22 start for -16.73 units, and an ROI of -29.9%!
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-195 vs CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 276-331 for -18.87 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 85-84, +15.32 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON GAME 1 (+100 at NYY), BOSTON GAME 2 (+116 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 at MIN), PITTSBURGH (+111 at STL), MIAMI (-104 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (+119 at TB), LA ANGELS (+212 vs PHI)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 231-153 for +50.29 units, an ROI of +13.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-106 vs SEA), ARIZONA GAME 1 (-108 at SF), ARIZONA GAME 2 (-119 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-207 start for -43.98 units (ROI -12.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-119 vs PIT), CINCINNATI (+181 at CHC), WASHINGTON (-104 vs MIA), TAMPA BAY (-127 vs SD), KANSAS CITY (+138 at CLE), PHILADELPHIA (-229 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 140-161 for +0.38 units. However, it has lost -12.92 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-116 vs CWS), TEXAS (+145 at MIL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2213-2090 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.68 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+181 at CHC), WASHINGTON (-104 vs MIA), TAMPA BAY (-127 vs SD), ARIZONA (-104 at SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2279-2861 (44.3%) for -267.15 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-176 vs DET), BOSTON GAME 1 (+105 at NYY), MIAMI (-104 at WSH), SEATTLE (-101 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (+111 at STL), TEXAS (+145 at MIL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 678-569 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.30 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs KC), LA ANGELS (+212 vs PHI)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 175-96 SU (+40.35 units, ROI: 14.9%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-195 vs CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 335-343 run (+15.79 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (+212 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 273-177 in their last 450 tries (+45.29 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-223 vs COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 569-557 for +22.42 units, good for +2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA ANGELS +212 (+22 diff), DETROIT +163 (+21), CINCINNATI +181 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -148 (+28 diff), MILWAUKEE -156 (+23), TORONTO -108 (+20), BALTIMORE -140 (+13), TAMPA BAY -127 (+10)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when ander. On Over projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 21-13-2 for +5.88 units and an ROI of 17.3%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LAD-DET OVER 7 (+1.0), BAL-ATH OVER 9.5 (+1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) CINCINNATI (64-71) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (76-59)
Trend: CIN is 32-48 (-7.91 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+173 at CHC)
Trend: CIN is 11-8 (+7.32 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott in the last few seasons
Trend: CIN is 10-6 (+5.88 units) on the road in Divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+173 at CHC)
(905) MIAMI (68-67) at (906) WASHINGTON (64-73)
Trend: Over the total is 10-4-1 (+5.70 units), with starter Cade Cavalli at home since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-WSH (o/u at 8)
(909) COLORADO (52-83) at (910) ATLANTA (80-55)
Trend: Martin Perez’s teams are 4-10 (-12.72 units) when he starts as a day game favorite of -145 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-223 vs COL)
(915) CHICAGO-AL (71-63) at (916) MINNESOTA (64-71)
Trend: Erick Fedde’s teams are 7-18 (-9.76 units) when he starts as a road underdog
Trend: MIN is 7-1 (+5.87 units) in the last eight at home vs Chicago White Sox with starter Bailey Ober
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-114 vs CWS)
(917) SEATTLE (64-71) at (918) TORONTO (66-70)
Trend: SEA is 24-43 (-21.06 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at TOR)
Trend: Jose Soriano’s teams are 15-8 (+9.21 units) when he starts in day games in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-106 vs SEA)
(921) BOSTON (73-61) at (922) NEW YORK-AL (76-58) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Under the total is 64-43-5 (+16.70 units) when NYY is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYY GAME 2 (o/u at 7.5)
(923) BALTIMORE (66-69) at (924) ATHLETICS (53-82)
Trend: Shane Baz’s teams are 4-14 (-17.07 units) when he starts as a favorite of -132 or more since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-140 at ATH)
Trend: Over the total is 39-25-3 (+11.50 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(929) SAN DIEGO (72-63) at (930) TAMPA BAY (80-54)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 27-10 (+15.75 units) when he starts vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+119 at TB)
Trend: Under the total is 14-3-2 (+10.75 units) when starter Nick Martinez is at home and facing opponents with a winning record since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-TB (o/u at 8)
(931) TEXAS (66-69) at (932) MILWAUKEE (84-51)
Trend: Cal Quantrill’s teams are 27-29 (+14.74 units) when he starts as an underdog of +135 or more in the last 5+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+145 at MIL)
(933) PHILADELPHIA (75-60) at (934) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-83)
Trend: PHI is 25-40 (-17.48 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at LAA)
Trend: PHI is 46-10 (+27.33 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-229 at LAA)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Seattle at Toronto, Fri 8/28-Sun 8/30
Trend: Road teams are on a 13-8 (61.9%, +6.52 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 31%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-101 at TOR)
Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Fri 8/28-Sun 8/30
Trend: ATLANTA has won 24 of the last 30 games against Colorado (80%, +7.87 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 26.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-218 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-186 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-229 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-176 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-127 vs SD), NY METS (-130 vs HOU), MILWAUKEE (-156 vs TEX), PHILADELPHIA (-229 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-130 vs HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 31)
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