Week 1 of the College Football season rolls on today with roughly 80 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Texas at Ohio State (-1, 47.5)
Texas (ranked 1st) finished 13-3 last season, reaching the College Football Playoff semifinals where the Longhorns lost to Ohio State 28-14. Oddsmakers expect Texas to take a slight step back this season as their win total is set at 9.5 with the over juiced to -180 at DraftKings. Meanwhile, Ohio State (ranked 3rd) went 14-2 and won the National Championship, beating Notre Dame 34-23 in the title game. The Buckeyes’ win total is set at 10.5 this season with the under juiced to -140.
This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this virtual 50/50 bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Buckeyes fall from -3 to -1.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that an overload of respected action has sided with the Longhorns plus the points.
At DraftKings, Ohio State is receiving 51% of spread bets and 51% of spread dollars. However, at Circa the Longhorns are taking in 61% of spread bets and 92% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road team. In fact, Circa reported a $550,000 wager on Texas +1 earlier this week, forcing the Vegas shop to flip to Longhorns -1 before settling back down to a pick’em.
One major dilemma for bettors at this point is deciding whether the value on Texas remains or if the drastic line dip has created a buy-low opportunity on Ohio State at a reduced price.
Those who jumped on the Longhorns at +3 are sitting pretty enjoying their Closing Line Value (CLV). However, at Circa, Ohio State is now receiving 30% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the Buckeyes to win straight up (-110) at deflated price. We’ve seen some sneaky Buckeyes buyback over the last 24-hours, with Circa flipping back from Texas -1 to a pick’em and a few other shops jumping back up to Buckeyes -1.5.
Ohio State enjoys true home-field advantage, as well as the fishy fact of being the 3rd ranked team favored over the 1st ranked team. Also, when two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 124-82 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a steady diet of under money drop the number from 50.5 to 47.5. This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (71% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on a lower scoring game. At Circa, the under is taking in 50% of bets and 61% of dollars, further evidence of pro money leaning under.
Weather looks to be perfect at Ohio Stadium, with a forecast of clear to partly cloudy skies, high 60s and mild 5 MPH winds.
12 p.m. ET: Northwestern at Tulane (-4.5, 46)
Northwestern finished a disappointing 4-8 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar result this year as their win total is set at 3.5 with the over heavily juiced to -220. On the other hand, Tulane went 9-5 last season and their win total for this year sits at 8.5 with the under juiced to -150.
This line opened with Tulane listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
The public expects an easy Tulane win and cover. However, despite receiving 66% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen Tulane fall from -6.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Northwestern, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Northwestern is taking in 34% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars. At Circa, Northwestern is receiving 59% of spread bets and a whopping 94% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog, especially out in Vegas.
Aside from heightened contrarian value in a heavily bet game, the Wildcats also feature correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (46). With fewer expected points scored, lower scoring games make it tougher for the favorite to cover the number.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46, with some shops even down to 45.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 34% of bets but a hefty 75% of dollars, signaling heavy pro money sweating a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for steamy mid 80s with partly cloudy skies, 5-7 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
7:30 p.m. ET: LSU at Clemson (-4, 57.5)
LSU (ranked 9th) went 9-4 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar performance this year as their win total sits at 8.5 with the over juiced to -160. Similarly, Clemson (ranked 4th) finished 10-4 last season and their win total is set at 10.5 with the under juiced to -140.
This line opened with Clemson listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public sees two ranked teams with a short spread and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings, we’ve seen Clemson creep up from -3 to -4 or ever -4.5 at some shops.
Once again, you would expect the line to remain relatively stagnant with a 50/50 bet split. So, based on the 1 or 1.5-point adjustment we can deduce that the preponderance of sharp action has backed the home chalk.
At DraftKings, Clemson is receiving is taking in 53% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars. At Circa, Clemson is receiving 55% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.
Those looking to follow the wiseguy Clemson move but also wary of a close game that may not cover the number could consider Clemson to win straight up on the moneyline (-185). At Circa, Clemson is receiving 40% of moneyline bets but a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy pro support out in the desert playing Clemson to win straight up.
Pros seem to be quietly leaning toward a higher scoring game, as we’ve seen the total tick up slightly from 56.5 to 57.5. While the public is split 50/50 on the over/under tickets at DraftKings, we are seeing roughly 60% of bets and dollars take the over at Circa.
The weather looks ideal for this primetime showdown, as the forecast calls for mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and near non-existent 2-3 MPH winds.
