Conference Championship weekend rolls on today with six title games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

12 p.m. ET: Iowa State (-1, 50.5) vs Arizona State

This Big 12 Championship will be played at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Iowa State (10-2, ranked 16th) has won three straight and just took down Kansas State 29-21, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona State (10-2, ranked 15th) has won five straight and just crushed Arizona 49-7, covering as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops hanging Iowa State -1 while others opened Arizona State -1.5. The public is all over Arizona State, as the Sun Devils are receiving 69% of spread bets at DraftKings and 65% of spread bets at Circa. Early in the week, we saw the line creep up to Arizona State -2.5. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on Iowa State, as the line has now flipped back to Cyclones -1. Essentially, all late movement and liability is siding with Iowa State in a “fade the trendy dog” sharp situational spot. Late movement is especially notable because that’s when oddsmakers raise their limits and taken in the biggest bets. The Cyclones have notable contrarian value as they are only taking in roughly one-third of spread bets in a heavily bet game on ABC. Those looking to follow the late sharp movement and mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could elect to play Iowa State on the moneyline at -110 or -115.

12 p.m. ET: Ohio vs Miami Ohio (-2.5, 44.5)

This MAC Championship showdown will be played at Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions. Ohio (9-3) has won five straight and just brushed aisde Ball State 42-21, covering as 18-point home favorites. Similarly, Miami Ohio (8-4) has won seven straight and just dismissed Bowling Green 28-12, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami Ohio listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and they’ve laid the chalk with Miami Ohio, steaming the RedHawks up from -1 to -2.5. Miami Ohio is receiving 70% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars at DraftKings, signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might prove to be a close game could elect to play Miami Ohio on the moneyline at -140. The RedHawks are taking in 72% of moneyline bets but 85% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings. At Circa, the RedHawks are receiving 64% of moneyline bets but a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing respected smart money playing Miami Ohio to win the game straight up. When two MAC teams face off, the favorite is 36-12 (75%) straight up this season. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44.5, with some shops now heading toward 44. This dip is notable because the public is hammering the over (77% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell.

4 p.m. ET: Georgia vs Texas (-2.5, 50.5)

This SEC Championship matchup will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Georgia (10-2, ranked 7th) has won three straight and just hung on to beat Georgia Tech 44-42 in 8 overtimes, although the Bulldogs failed to cover as 17-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas (11-1, ranked 3rd) has won five straight and just edged Texas A&M 17-7, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the Longhorns, steaming Texas up from -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are even moving the Longhorns to the key number of -3. Texas is only receiving 54% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars at DraftKings, signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Pros also seem to be targeting Texas on the moneyline (-140), as they are taking in 59% of bets and 62% of dollars at DraftKings to win straight up. Both teams can put up points and are averaging roughly 34 PPG. However, Texas has a big edge defensively as they are only giving up 11.7 PPG while Georgia is allowing 20.5 PPG. This is also a revenge system match for the Longhorns, who suffered their only loss of the season against Georgia, falling 30-15 at home back in mid October. When two SEC teams face off, the favorite is 42-21 (67%) straight up this season. We’ve also seen this total tick up from 49.5 to 50.5. The over is receiving 59% of bets but a whopping 87% of dollars at Circa.

8 p.m. ET: Penn State vs Oregon (-3.5, 50.5)

This Big Ten Championship game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts. Penn State (11-1, ranked 4th) has won four straight and just destroyed Maryland 44-7, easily covering as 26.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon (12-0, ranked 1st) is the only undefeated team in the nation and just took care of business against Washington 49-21, covering as 17-point home favorites. This line opened with Oregon listed as a roughly 4-point neutral site favorite, with some shops opening Oregon as high as -4.5 and and low as -3.5. The public can’t believe this line is so low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Ducks. However, despite receiving 81% of spread bets at DraftKings and 77% of spread bets at Circa we’ve seen Oregon fall to -3.5 across the board. Several shops are juicing up Penn State +3.5 (-115), indicating further liability on the dog and possible fall down to -3. Normally if a team is receiving such lopsided support you would expect to see them tick up from -4 to -5. The fact that this line has stayed the same or moved toward Penn State signals a sharp line freeze and/or reverse line movement on the Nittany Lions plus the points. Penn State is the top “bet against the public” play on championship Saturday, as they are only receiving roughly 20% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on CBS. When two top 5 teams face off, the dog is 29-19 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2006.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR