Happy New Year! Today we have a trio of College Football Playoff Quarterfinal matchups to get down on. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Texas (-13.5, 52) vs Arizona State

This is the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and it will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Texas (12-2) is the 5-seed and just brushed aside Clemson 38-24 in the first round of the playoffs, covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona State (11-2) is the 4-seed and coming off a bye after crushing Iowa State 45-19 in the Big 12 championship, easily winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened with Texas listed as a 13.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points, as the Longhorns are receiving 53% of spread bets at DraftKings and 51% of spread bets at Circa. However, despite receiving a slight majority of tickets we’ve seen Texas remain frozen at -13.5. Some shops are down to -13 and we’ve seen the line fall to as low as -12.5 over the past week. The line has never risen up to -14. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability appears to be in favor of Arizona State plus the points.

The Sun Devils have correlative betting value as a big nearly two-touchdown dog in a relatively low total game (52), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Arizona State is also a “dog who can score” system match (33.1 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up slightly from 51.5 to 52. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 82% of bets and 83% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 81% of bets and 89% of dollars. This indicates heavy Pro and Joe action in favor of a higher scoring game.

5 p.m. ET: Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs Oregon

This is the Rose Bowl and it will be played in Pasadena, California. Ohio State (11-2) is the 8-seed and just crushed Tennessee 42-17 in the first round of the playoffs, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Oregon (13-0) is the 1-seed and coming off a bye after defeating Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten championship, covering as 3.5-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened with Ohio State listed as low as a 1-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 62% of spread bets at DraftKings and 53% of spread bets at Circa are backing Oregon as a dog. However, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Ohio State -1 to -2.5. Several books are juicing up Ohio State -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible further gameday rise up to the key number of -3. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Ohio State, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play. At DraftKings, the Buckeyes are only receiving 38% of spread bets but 58% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Buckeyes are taking in 47% of spread bets but a whopping 91% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Ohio State.

Those looking to follow the sharp line move but also wary of laying points in what might be a close game could instead play Ohio State on the moneyline at -140. At DraftKings, the Buckeyes are receiving 36% of moneyline bets but 49% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of respected pro money playing Ohio State to win straight up. This is also a revenge play for the Buckeyes, who lost to Oregon 32-31 in early October. Both teams are averaging roughly 36 PPG on offense. Ohio State has the stingier defense though, giving up only 11.4 PPG compared to 17.8 PPG allowed for Oregon.

Sharps have hit the over, steaming the total up from 53.5 to 55.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 87% of bets and 89% of dollars. At Circa, the over is getting 93% of bets but only 49% of dollars. Weather should be perfect in Pasadena, as the forecast calls for high 60s with clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

8:45 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-1, 45.5) vs Georgia

This is the Allstate Sugar Bowl and it will be played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, home of the New Orleans Saints. Notre Dame (12-1) is the 7-seed and just took down Indiana 27-17 in the first round of the playoffs, covering as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, Georgia (11-2) is the 2-seed and coming off a bye after beating Texas 22-19 in overtime in the SEC championship game, winning outright as 3-point neutral site dogs.

This line opened with Georgia listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit short, with 66% of spread bets at DraftKings and 54% of spread bets at Circa laying the chalk with the Bulldogs. However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Georgia either remain frozen at -1 or even flip to a 1-point dog at some shops. This signals a sharp line freeze and/or “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Notre Dame, as the line has either stayed the same or moved in favor of the Irish despite being the unpopular play. The movement toward Notre Dame is especially notable because it has taken place over the last 24-hours. Late movement is especially important because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.

Notre Dame is the top contrarian play of the day, as they are only receiving 34% of spread bets at DraftKings and 46% of spread bets at Circa in a heavily bet, primetime game. This is also a critical game to shop for the best line, as some books are still hanging Notre Dame +1 while others are posting Notre Dame -1. For those looking to mitigate some risk in a possible 1-point game, it might be wise to consider the moneyline. At Circa, the Irish are -120 and they are receiving 48% of moneyline bets but a hefty 76% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian discrepancy.

Notre Dame has the better offense (38.8 PPG vs 33.2 PPG) and superior defense (13.9 PPG vs 20.4 PPG). Keep in mind that Georgia’s starting QB Carson Beck is out for this game with an elbow injury and sophomore Gunner Stockton will start in his place.

Wiseguys have also leaned over, raising the total up from 44 to 45.5. At DraftKings, the public is relatively undecided as 55% of bets and 51% of dollars are taking the over. However, at Circa the over is receiving 56% of bets but 77% of dollars, signaling respected pro money expecting points out in Vegas.

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