Today we have a loaded College Football Week 12 slate on tap with more than 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:30 p.m. ET: Penn State (-7, 49.5) at Michigan State
Penn State (3-6) just came up short against Indiana 27-24 but easily covered as 14-point home dogs. On the other hand, Michigan State (3-6) just fell to Minnesota 23-20 in overtime, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Penn State listed as a 7-point road favorite.
The public is happy to lay the points with the Nittany Lions after they almost took down powerhouse Indiana.
However, despite receiving 70% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Penn State remain largely stagnant at -7. Anytime the line ticks up to Penn State -7.5 we’ve seen sharp buyback on Michigan State plus the hook, dropping it back down to 7 where it rests on gameday.
This signals a sharp line freeze in favor of Michigan State plus the points, as the line has barely budged despite heavy betting in favor of Penn State.
At DraftKings, Michigan State is receiving 30% of spread bets but 43% of spread dollars. At Circa, Michigan State is taking in 57% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog plus the points.
The Spartans have betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Home conference dogs are 84-67 ATS (56%) with a 6% ROI this season and 191-161 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
When two teams in the Big Ten face off, the conference dog is 32-23 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Michigan State enjoys a rest advantage, as the Spartans are coming off a bye while Penn State just lost a tough heartbreaker against Indiana.
Those looking to back the unpopular dog would be wise to shop around for the hook, as FanDuel is offering Spartans +7.5 (-120) while the rest of the market is down to 7 and ESPN Bet is now showing 6.5.
4:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina at Wake Forest (-4.5, 38.5)
North Carolina (4-5) just held off Stanford 20-15 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wake Forest (6-3) just upset Virginia 16-9, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Wake Forest listed as high as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought this opener was a bit high and have gotten down hard on North Carolina plus the points, steaming the Tar Heels down from +6.5 to +4.5.
The line movement in favor of North Carolina has been steady and consistent all week without any notable buyback on Wake Forest. North Carolina has fallen from +5.5 to +4.5 over the past 24-hours in particular, indicating late money breaking further in their favor.
At DraftKings, North Carolina is receiving 64% of spread bets but a hefty 90% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also respected smart money on the road dog.
When two teams in the ACC face off in conference play, the road dogs is 19-12 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI this season. North Carolina in particular is 2-0 ATS as a conference dog this season.
The Tar Heels have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
7:30 p.m. ET: Texas at Georgia (-4.5, 49.5)
Texas (7-2, ranked 10th) just held off Vanderbilt 34-31 but failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Georgia (8-1, ranked 5th) just brushed aside Mississippi State 41-21, easily covering as 9.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
The public says Georgia is the better team and 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Bulldogs at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided public support we’ve seen Georgia fall from -6.5 to -4.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Texas plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Longhorns despite the public pounding the Bulldogs.
The movement is particularly notable because Georgia was sitting at -6.5 all week and hadn’t budged. Then, this morning we saw the line break toward Texas unexpectedly, indicating late sharp wagers backing the Longhorns. Late gameday movement is always notable because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.
Texas has heightened “bet against the public” value as the Longhorns are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ABC.
At DraftKings, Texas is taking in 31% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers in their favor.
Texas enjoys a rest advantage, as the Longhorns are coming off a bye while the Bulldogs just played on the road at Mississippi State.
The Longhorns have the edge defensively, allowing 16.4 PPG compared to the Bulldogs giving up 21.5 PPG.
