Today we have a loaded College Football Week 10 slate on tap with with roughly 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:30 p.m. ET: Texas Tech (-7.5, 51.5) at Kansas State
Texas Tech (7-1, ranked 13th) just shutout Oklahoma State 42-0, covering as 37.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas State (4-4) just upset Kansas 42-17, easily winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Texas Tech listed as a 7-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the road chalk and 54% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Red Raiders.
This public support has pushed Texas Tech up from -7 to -7.5. However, now that the hook has become available we’ve seen some respected buyback on Kansas State, as the Wildcats are being juiced up +7.5 (-115 or -120) and several other books are back down to +7.
At DraftKings, Kansas State is receiving 46% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kansas State is taking in 42% of spread bets but a whopping 89% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
The Wildcats have betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Home conference dogs are 69-52 ATS (57%) with an 9% ROI this season and 181-147 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
The Wildcats have additional buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 62-52 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 170-143 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 53.5 to 51.5.
This downward movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (90% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in 45% of bets but 80% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Weather could play a factor, as the forecast calls for high 40s with partly cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds.
7:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Tennessee (-3, 55.5)
Oklahoma (6-2, ranked 18th) just came up short against Ole Miss 34-26, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tennessee (6-2, ranked 14th) just blew out Kentucky 56-34, easily covering as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3.5-point home favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 81% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Tennessee at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Tennessee fall from -3.5 to -3, with several shops even down to -2.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Volunteers to begin with? Because respected pro money has jumped on Oklahoma plus the points, adjusting the line in favor of the unpopular road dog.
Oklahoma is one of the top contrarian plays of the day as the Sooners are only receiving 19% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, primetime game on ABC.
At Circa, Oklahoma is receiving 21% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.
The Sooners have buy-low value as a dog who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high home favorite who easily covered the previous week.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 651-576 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2012. When two SEC teams face off in conference play, the dog is 57-43 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2024.
7:30 p.m. ET: USC (-4.5, 59.5) at Nebraska
USC (5-2, ranked 23rd) just fell to Notre Dame 34-24 but managed to cover as 10.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Nebraska (6-2) just held off Northwestern 28-21, pushing as 7-point home favorites.
This line opened with USC listed as a 6.5-point road favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to back USC, who has the better ranking.
However, despite receiving 64% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen USC tumble from -6.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Nebraska plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Cornhuskers despite the public supporting the Trojans.
The movement toward Nebraska has been steady and consistent all week, especially over the past 24-48 hours, with no discernible buyback on USC.
Nebraska has notable “bet against the public” value as the Cornhuskers are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on NBC.
At Circa, Nebraska is taking in 39% of spread bets but a hefty 68% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Home conference dogs are 69-52 ATS (57%) with an 9% ROI this season and 181-147 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 62-52 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 170-143 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
When two Big Ten teams face off in conference play, the dog is 24-17 ATS (59%) with an 11% ROI this season. If the Big Ten conference dog is getting 4-points or more, they improve to 21-12 ATS (64%) with a 20% ROI this season.
