Today we have a loaded College Football Week 13 slate on tap with over 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:30 p.m. ET: Arkansas at Texas (-8.5, 58.5)
Arkansas (2-8) has lost eight games in a row and just came up short against LSU 23-22 but covered as 4.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Texas (7-3, ranked 17th) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Georgia 35-10 and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Texas listed as a 10-point home favorite.
The public takes one look at each team’s won-loss record and is happy to lay the chalk with the Longhorns at home.
However, despite receiving 72% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Longhorns fall from -10 to -8.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Arkansas plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Razorbacks despite the public hammering Texas.
At DraftKings, Arkansas is receiving 28% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, Arkansas is taking in 46% of spread bets but 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
Arkansas has buy-low value as a unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 87-71 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season and 195-162 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
Despite Arkansas’ poor won-loss record, the Razorbacks have hung tough against SEC opponents recently, covering their last three games as dogs. Arkansas lost to LSU 23-22 but covered +4.5, lost 45-42 to Texas A&M but covered +7.5 and lost 34-31 to Tennessee but covered +10.5.
Sharps also seem to be expecting a higher scoring game here, as the total has ticked up from 57.5 to 58.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 42% of bets but a whopping 79% of dollars, further evidence of big pro money playing the over.
3:30 p.m. ET: Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-8.5, 54.5)
Kentucky (5-5) has won three straight and just brushed aside Tennessee Tech 42-10, covering as 22.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt (8-2, ranked 14th) just held off Auburn 45-38 in overtime, covering as 6-point home favorites.
This line opened with Vanderbilt listed as a 9.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and is happy to lay the points with the Commodores, who have the better record, ranking and enjoy home-field advantage.
However, despite receiving 63% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Vanderbilt fall from -9.5 to -8.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing the Commodores to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Kentucky plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog.
At DraftKings, Kentucky is taking in 37% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
The Wildcats have buy-low value as a unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 87-71 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season and 195-162 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
7 p.m. ET: Nebraska at Penn State (-7.5, 45.5)
Nebraska (7-3) just upset UCLA 28-21, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Penn State (4-6) just snapped a six-game losing skid with a 28-10 win over Michigan State, covering as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Penn State listed as a 10-point home favorite.
The public is largely split down the middle and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split we’ve seen Penn State tumble from -10 to -7.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread one way or another. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with Nebraska.
At DraftKings, the Cornhuskers are receiving 48% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. At Circa, Nebraska is taking in 47% of spread bets but a hefty 91% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the pros out in Vegas taking the points with the road dog.
Nebraska enjoys a rest advantage, as the Cornhuskers are coming off a bye while Penn State just played on the road at Michigan State.
The Cornhuskers also offer correlative betting value as a touchdown plus favorite in a low total game (45.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
When two teams in the Big Ten face off in conference play, the dog is 35-27 ATS (57%) with a 7% ROI this season.
