Today we have a loaded College Football Week 13 slate on tap with over 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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3:30 p.m. ET: Colorado (-2.5, 59.5) at Kansas

Colorado (8-2, ranked 16th) has won four straight games and just crushed Utah 49-24, covering as 13.5-points home favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (4-6) has won three of their last four games and just upset BYU 17-13, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Colorado listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Colorado, who has the far better won-loss record and ranking. However, despite receiving 83% of spread bets we’ve seen Colorado remain stagnant at -2.5. Anytime this line has jumped up to Colorado -3 we’ve seen sharp buyback on Kansas +3, dropping the line back down to -2.5. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on Kansas, as the line has remained the same despite overwhelming Colorado support. Kansas is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 17% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised game on FOX. At Circa Sports, Kansas is receiving 40% of spread bets but 77% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Kansas has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked favorite. The Jayhawks are a “dog who can score” system match (30 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. We’ve also seen some sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 60 to 59.5. At Circa, the under is receiving 23% of bets but 67% of dollars, a sharp bet split. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies, mid 50s and 10 MPH winds, making this a slight “windy under” system match.

3:30 p.m. ET: BYU at Arizona State (-3, 49.5)

BYU (9-1, ranked 14th) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Kansas 17-13 and losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arizona State (8-2, ranked 21st) has won three straight and just upset Kansas State 24-14, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona State listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees two good teams and is relatively split in terms of whether they should take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Arizona State get juiced up -3 (-115) or even tick up to -3.5 at some shops. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based upon the juice and line movement that pro money is backing the home favorite Sun Devils. Arizona State is only receiving 53% of spread bets but 67% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those looking to follow the sharp liability but wary of laying points around a key number could instead elect to play Arizona State on the moneyline at -160. The Sun Devils are receiving 31% of moneyline bets but 54% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing Arizona State to win the game straight up. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 12-4 (75%) straight up this season and 166-39 (81%) straight up with an 11% ROI since 2016.

10:30 p.m. ET: USC (-5, 51.5) at UCLA

USC (5-5) has won two of their last three games and just took down Nebraska 28-20, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, UCLA (4-6) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Washington 31-19 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with USC listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 spread bet split we’ve seen USC fall from -5.5 to -5. Some shops are even down to -4.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down on UCLA plus the points at home. UCLA has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Both teams are now in the Big Ten before both being in the Pac 12. UCLA also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Friday while USC played on Saturday. The Bruins have buy-low value as a dog off a loss who failed to cover against a sell-high favorite off a win who covered. UCLA is 0-4 straight up on the road this season and 0-7 ATS as a road favorite dating back to last season. UCLA ranks 7th best in the nation in rush defense. USC is dealing with a flu outbreak that has hit their locker room, which could also play a factor in this matchup.

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