Tonight we have a loaded CFB slate on tap with four Friday Night Lights matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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8 p.m. ET: California (-7.5, 54.5) at Wake Forest

California (4-4) just ended a four-game losing streak with a 44-7 blowout win over Oregon State, easily covering as 9-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wake Forest (4-4) has won two straight and just edged Stanford 27-24, pushing as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with California listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and 54% of spread bets are taking the points with the home dog Demon Deacons. However, despite a slight majority of bets taking Wake Forest we’ve actually seen this line move further toward California (-7 to -7.5). This signals sneaky sharp line movement on the Golden Bears, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side. California is only receiving 46% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of wiseguy “fade the trendy dog” support. Both teams are averaging roughly 27 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where California is only giving up 17 PPG compared to Wake Forest allowing 31 PPG.

9 p.m. ET: Iowa (-6.5, 44.5) at UCLA

Iowa (6-3) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Wisconsin 42-10, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, UCLA (3-5) has won two straight games and just took down Nebraska 27-20, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy Iowa cover and 75% of spread bets are laying the points with the road favorite Hawkeyes. This lopsided support drove Iowa up from -5.5 to -6.5. Now that the line has moved a full point off the opener we are starting to see some resistance on UCLA +6.5. The Bruins have notable buy-low inflated line value as they are only receiving 25% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night on FOX. In other words, UCLA is the top contrarian play of the night. UCLA is only receiving 25% of spread bets but 36% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split. We’ve also seen pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44.5. This movement is especially notable because the public is heavy on the over (73% of bets), yet the total fell. The under is only receiving 27% of bets but 51% of dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers going under. In terms of pace of play, these are two of the slowest teams in College Football, with Iowa ranking 128th and UCLA ranking 131st (out of 134 total teams).

9 p.m. ET: Rice at Memphis (-7, 51)

Rice (3-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 24-10 victory over Navy, winning outright as 12.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Memphis (7-2) just saw their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to UTSA 44-36 and losing outright as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Memphis listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. The public takes one look at each team’s won-loss record and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Tigers at home. However, despite receiving 75% of spread bets we’ve seen Memphis fall from -10.5 to -7. This signals massive reverse line movement on Rice, as the line has moved bigly in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Rice is only receiving 25% of spread bets but 50% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN2. Rice has additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Rice also has correlative betting value, as they are a touchdown dog in a relatively low total game (51), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Those looking to play Rice would be wise to shop around, as a few books are still offering +7.5 while most of the market is down to +7. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51, with some shops even inching down to 50.5. The under is only receiving 26% of bets but 45% of dollars, a wiseguy under bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 60s with cloudy skies and 9-10 MPH winds, which matches the classic “windy under” system play.

10:30 p.m. ET: New Mexico at San Diego State (-2.5, 65.5)

New Mexico (3-6) has lost two straight games and just came up short against Wyoming 49-45, losing outright as 8-point home favorites. Similarly, San Diego State (3-5) has also dropped two straight and just got rolled by Boise State 56-24, failing to cover as 24.5-point road dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public seems to think this line was a bit short and 75% of spread bets are laying the points with the Aztecs at home. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen San Diego State fall from -3.5 to -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering San Diego State to begin with? Because sharp wiseguy money has come down on New Mexico plus the points, triggering reverse line movement in their favor. New Mexico is only receiving 25% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in a heavily bet primetime game on FSI. New Mexico has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Lobos are also a “dog who can score” system match (35 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. San Diego State is only averaging 20 PPG offensively. Pros and Joes appear to both leaning under, as the total has dropped from 66.5 to 65.5 with 63% of bets and 60% of dollars going under.

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