Today we have a loaded College Football Week 11 slate on tap with roughly 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:30 p.m. ET: Oregon (-5.5, 41.5) at Iowa
Oregon (7-1, ranked 9th) just brushed aside Wisconsin 21-7 but failed to cover as 31.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa (6-2, ranked 20th) just crushed Minnesota 41-3, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Oregon listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public sees an easy Ducks win by more than a touchdown and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Oregon.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of bets we’ve seen Oregon remain static at -6. Any time this line has ticked up to Ducks -6.5, we’ve seen sharp buyback on Iowa plus the hook, dropping the line back down to 6. Now, on gameday we are seeing Oregon fall to -5.5.
This signals a sharp line freeze and game day reverse line movement in favor of Iowa, as the line has moved toward the Hawkeyes despite the public pounding the Ducks.
At DraftKings, Iowa is receiving 37% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. At Circa, Iowa is taking in 60% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
Home conference dogs are 73-61 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 185-155 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
When two teams in the Big Ten face off in conference play, the dog is 27-21 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Iowa has additional correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (42.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the touchdown spread.
3:30 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (-6.5, 48.5) at Missouri
Texas A&M (8-0, ranked 3rd) just took down LSU 49-25, easily covering as 1.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Missouri (6-2, ranked 22nd) just came up short against Vanderbilt 17-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the points the Aggies, who have the better record and ranking.
Behind 75% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Texas A&M creep up from -6 to -7. However, once the key number of 7 was made available we’ve seen sharp buyback on Missouri, with the Tigers being juiced up +7 (-115 to -120) at some shops while the rest of the market is back down to +6.5. Essentially, late movement is breaking back toward the home dog.
Missouri is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day are the Tigers are only taking in one-quarter of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised mid-afternoon game on ABC.
At DraftKings, Missouri is receiving 25% of spread bets and 36% of spread dollars. At Circa, Missouri is taking in 56% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home dog.
Missouri has buy-low value as a dog off a loss and failed cover against a sell-high undefeated popular favorite off a win and easy cover.
Home conference dogs are 73-61 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 185-155 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
When two teams in the SEC face off in conference play, the dog getting 6-points or more is 40-23 ATS (60%) with a 21% ROI since 2024.
7:30 p.m. ET: Florida (-3.5, 44.5) at Kentucky
Florida (3-5) just fell to Georgia 24-20 but managed to cover as 7-point home dogs. On the other hand, Kentucky (3-5) just shocked Auburn 10-3, winning outright as 11.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Gators on the road.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Florida remain at -3.5. In fact, most of the market is juicing up the Kentucky +3.5 (-120) while several other shops have fallen down to Kentucky +3 at times during the week.
Reading between the lines, this signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement in favor of Kentucky, as the line has either stayed the same or moved toward the Wildcats despite the public pounding the Gators.
At DraftKings, Kentucky is receiving only 34% of spread bets but 53% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kentucky is receiving 48% of spread bets and 63% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular primetime dog at home.
Kentucky has betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Home conference dogs are 73-61 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season and 185-155 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
When two teams in the SEC face off in conference play, the dog getting 3-points or more is 53-35 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2024.
Kentucky has additional correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
