Today we have a loaded College Football Week 11 slate on tap with nearly 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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3:30 p.m. ET: Iowa State (-2.5, 51.5) at Kansas

Iowa State (7-1, ranked 17th) just lost their first game of the season, falling to Texas Tech 23-22 and losing outright as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (2-6) just came up short against Kansas State 29-27 but covered as 9.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Iowa State, who has the far better won-loss record and ranking. However, despite receiving 88% of spread bets we’ve seen Iowa State fall from -3.5 to -2.5. Some shops are even down to -2. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kansas, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the highly unpopular side. The line movement has been consistent and one-sided all week in favor of the Jayhawks, with no buyback on Iowa State. Kansas is only receiving 12% of spread bets but 25% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet late afternoon game on FSI. Kansas has buy-low value as a unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent, as well as a conference dog with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. When two Big 12 teams face off, the dog is 26-19 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season. The Jayhawks also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage as they are coming off a bye and didn’t play last week while Iowa State played on Saturday. In terms of the total, the public is hammering the over (78% of bets) and we’ve seen it creep up slightly from 50.5 to 51.5. However, weather could play a factor here as the forecast calls for low 60s, partly cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH, which would qualify as a “windy under” system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

3:30 p.m. ET: Georgia (-2, 54.5) at Ole Miss

Georgia (7-1, ranked 2nd) has won four straight games and just brushed aside Florida 34-20 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Ole Miss (7-2, ranked 16th) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Arkansas 63-31, easily covering as 8-point road favorites. The early opener for this game was Georgia listed as high as a 6.5-point road favorite. This line quickly got adjusted down to Georgia -3. The public thinks this line is way too low and 88% of spread bets are laying the points with the Bulldogs. However, despite receiving such heavy support we’ve seen Georgia fall from -3 to -2. Some shops are even inching down to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Ole Miss, as the line has moved consistently in favor of the Rebels all week despite being the unpopular play. Ole Miss is the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 12% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the day on ABC. Ole Miss has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. When two SEC teams face off, the dog is 29-13 ATS (69%) with a 31% ROI thus season. The Rebels are also a “dog who can score” system match (42 PPG), thereby keeping pace or back door covering. Georgia is averaging 33 PPG. Ole Miss also has the slightly better defense, giving up 13 PPG compared to Georgia allowing 17 PPG. When two ranked teams face off, the home dog is 7-3 ATS (70%) this season with a 33% ROI. We’ve also seen a bit of a sharp under line freeze, as 69% of bets are taking the over the total has remained relatively stagnant, with some shops reaching 55.5 and falling back down to 54.5. The under is only receiving 31% of bets but 59% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Keep an eye on the weather, as the early forecast calls for mid 70s with 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain.

10:15 p.m. ET: BYU (-3, 40.5) at Utah

BYU (8-0, ranked 9th) just outlasted UCF 37-24, easily winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Utah (4-4) has dropped four straight games and just came up short against Houston 17-14, losing outright as 5-point road favorites. This line opened with BYU listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public sees another easy BYU cover and 74% of spread bets are laying the points with the undefeated Cougars. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen BYU fall from -4.5 to -3. Some shops are even hinting at a further game-day move down to -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering BYU to begin with? Because pro money has come down on Utah plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog. Utah is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as the Utes are only receiving 26% of spread bets in a heavily bet late night game on ESPN. Utah has value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent, as well as buy-low value as a dog on a losing streak against a sell-high undefeated team. Utah also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (40.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Utah will lean on their defense, as the Utes are allowing just 16.5 PPG compared to BYU giving up 19.6 PPG. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 40.5. This is especially notable because the public is crushing the over (87% of bets), yet we’ve seen the line fall. The under is only receiving 13% of bets but 35% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

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