Today we have a loaded Week 7 College Football slate on tap with nearly 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Alabama (-3.5, 52.5) at Missouri
Alabama (4-1, ranked 8th) just held off Vanderbilt 30-14, covering as 12.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Missouri (5-0, ranked 14th) just dominated UMass 42-6 but failed to cover as 44.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Alabama listed as high as a 6.5-point road favorite.
The public sees an easy Crimson Tide win and cover and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Alabama.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Alabama fall from -6.5 to -3.5. In addition, much of the market is juicing up Missouri +3.5 (-115) and some shops have even touched down to 3 at times throughout the week.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line so significantly to hand out a better number to the public when they’re already hammering Alabama to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Missouri plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
Missouri is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the the day as the Tigers are only receiving 32% of spread bets in the most heavily bet noon kickoff.
A Circa, Missouri is taking in 35% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
The Tigers enjoy a rest advantage, as Missouri was off last week while Alabama played Vanderbilt.
Home conference dogs, like Missouri here, are 31-23 ATS (57%) this season and 143-117 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
SEC conference dogs are 49-31 ATS (61%) with a 17% ROI since 2024.
Eliah Drinkwitz is 10-3 ATS (77%) as a home dog as head coach of Missouri.
3:30 p.m. ET: Indiana at Oregon (-7.5, 53.5)
Indiana (5-0, ranked 7th) just outlasted Iowa 20-15 but failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Oregon (5-0, ranked 3rd) just upset Penn State 30-24, winning outright as 4-point road dogs.
This line opened with Oregon listed as high as a 9.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and 72% of spread bets at DraftKings and laying the points with Oregon at home.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the Ducks fall from -9.5 to -7.5. In addition, most of the market is juicing up Indiana +7.5 (-115) and some books are even down to +7. This indicates sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Hoosiers plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of Indiana even though the public is backing Oregon.
The movement toward Indiana has been steady and consistent all week with no discernible buyback on Oregon.
Indiana has notable “bet against the public” value, as the Hoosiers are taking in only 28% spread bets in the most heavily bet late afternoon game of the day.
At Circa, the Hoosiers are only receiving 29% of spread bets but a whopping 75% of spread dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy desert wagers backing the road dog plus the points.
Indiana has additional betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match (41.5 PPG, 7th best in College Football), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
7:30 p.m. ET: Michigan at USC (-2.5, 56.5)
Michigan (4-1, ranked 15th) just took down Wisconsin 24-10 but failed to cover as 17-point home favorites. On the other hand, USC (4-1) just came up short against Illinois 34-32, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with USC listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home field advantage, why is an unranked team coming off a loss favored over a ranked team coming off a win?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 61% of spread bets are taking the points with Michigan.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Michigan we’ve actually seen this line move further toward USC -1.5 to -2.5. In addition, most of the market is juicing up USC -2.5 (-115), signaling further liability and a possible move up to -3. This indicates sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on USC, as the line has moved toward the Trojans despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, USC is receiving 39% of spread bets but 69% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk. At Circa, USC is taking in 74% of spread bets and 85% of spread dollars, a sharp Pro and Joe bet split out in Vegas.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added protection in what might be a close game could instead target USC on the moneyline at -140.
At DraftKings, USC is taking in 23% of moneyline bets and 43% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, USC is receiving 38% of moneyline bets but a hefty 84% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian split in favor of a straight up Trojans victory.
USC enjoys a rest advantage, as the Trojans were off last week while Michigan played Wisconsin.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 55-30 (65%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2017.
