Today we have a loaded slate of Week 7 College Football sweats with nearly 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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3:30 p.m. ET: Penn State (-3.5, 50.5) at USC

Penn State (5-0, ranked 4th) just outlasted UCLA 27-11 to remain undefeated but failed to cover as 30-point home favorites. On the other hand, USC (3-2) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Minnesota 24-17, losing outright as 8.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Penn State listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with Penn State and 65% of spread bets are laying the points with the highly ranked Nittany Lions. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Penn State fall from -5.5 to -3.5. Over the past 24-hours we’ve seen USC fall from +4 to +3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Penn State to begin with? Because pros have sided with USC plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement on the unpopular Trojans. USC is only receiving 35% of spread bets, offering notable contrarian value in a heavily bet late afternoon game. The Trojans have buy-low value as an unranked dog off a loss against a sell-high ranked opponent off a win. Sharps are expecting a higher scoring game, steaming the total up from 48.5 to 51.5.

7:30 p.m. ET: Ohio State (-3, 54) at Oregon

Ohio State (5-0, ranked 2nd) just took down Iowa 35-7, easily covering as 17.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon (5-0, ranked 3rd) just beat Michigan State 31-10 but failed to cover as 22.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with powerhouse Ohio State. However, despite receiving 77% of spread bets we’ve seen Ohio State fall from -4 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Oregon, as the line has steadily moved in their direction all week despite being the highly unpopular play. Oregon is one of the top contrarian plays of the week, receiving only 23% of spread bets in a heavily bet nationally televised primetime showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. When two teams who rank in the Top 5 face off, the dog is 27-17 ATS (61%) with an 18% ROI since 2005. The Ducks are a buy-low, sell-high play as they failed to cover last week while Ohio State covered easily. Oregon also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Friday at home while Ohio State played on Saturday and now must travel to the Pacific Northwest. Oregon also has value as a “dog who can score” system match (35 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total up from 51.5 to 54. The over is receiving roughly 75% of bets and dollars, a heavy dose of Pro and Joe support. Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

8 p.m. ET: Iowa State (-3.5, 53.5) at West Virginia

Iowa State (5-0, ranked 11th) just brushed aside Baylor 43-21, cruising as 12.5-point home favorites. Similarly, West Virginia (3-2) just crushed Oklahoma State 38-14, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with the Cyclones, who have the far better won-loss record and ranking. With 65% of spread bets backing Iowa State, we’ve seen the Cyclones creep up slightly to -3.5. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’re seeing West Virginia get juiced up +3.5 (-115), signaling liability and potential buyback on the Mountaineers plus the hook. Some shops are even inching back down to +3. Reading between the lines, we are seeing a bit of a sharp line freeze and potential reverse line movement on the Mountaineers. West Virginia is only receiving 35% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Mountaineers have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, primetime 8 p.m. ET showdown on FOX. West Virginia has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Mountaineers are also a conference dog system match, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Sharps have hit the over, raising the total from 51 to 53.5. The over is receiving 63% of bets and 77% of money, a wiseguy over bet discrepancy.

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