Today we have a loaded Saturday Week 8 slate of College Football action with roughly 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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12 p.m. ET: Auburn at Missouri (-3.5, 49)

Auburn (2-4) has dropped three straight games and just fell to Georgia 31-13 but managed to cover as 21.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Missouri (5-1, ranked 19th) just crushed UMass 45-3, easily covering as 27.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Missouri listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with Missouri and 76% of spread bets are laying the points with the home favorite. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Missouri fall from -6.5 to -3.5. Some shops are even inching down to -3 on gameday. The movement toward Auburn has been steady and one-sided from the open. It is especially notable because Auburn is only receiving 24% of spread bets, signaling notable contrarian value and sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs +4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. With roughly 3-points awarded for home field advantage, this means that on a neutral field the teams are roughly even. Auburn has additional buy-low value as an unranked road dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Auburn is a conference dog system match, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Auburn also enjoys a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while Missouri played last Saturday. Pros seem to be leaning under, as we’ve seen the total drop from 51.5 to 49. The under is only receiving 26% of bets but 41% of money, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.

12:45 p.m. ET: South Carolina (-1, 41) at Oklahoma

South Carolina (3-3) just put up a valiant effort against Alabama, losing 27-25 but easily covering as 21.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Oklahoma (4-2) just got rolled by Texas 34-3, failing to cover as 16.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward Oklahoma, who has the better won-loss record and enjoys home field advantage. However, despite 56% of spread bets taking Oklahoma, we’ve seen the line move drastically in favor of South Carolina, flipping the Gamecocks from a 3-point road dog to a 1-point road favorite. Some shops are even rising further on gameday to South Carolina -1.5. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on South Carolina. The movement has been one sided with no discernible buyback on Oklahoma. Those looking to follow the sharp South Carolina move but wary of now laying short chalk in what might be a close game could instead target the Gamecocks on the moneyline at -120. South Carolina is receiving 36% of moneyline bets but 48% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro money siding with the Gamecocks to win straight up. South Carolina has the edge on offense, averaging 27.5 PPG compared to Oklahoma averaging 24.3 PPG. The Gamecocks will look to gain control in the running game, as they are averaging 175 rushing yards per game.

7 p.m. ET: LSU (-2.5, 57) at Arkansas

LSU (5-1, ranked 8th) just took down Ole Miss 29-26, winning outright as 4-point home dogs. Similarly, Arkansas (4-2) just shocked Tennessee 19-14, winning outright as 14-point home dogs. This line opened with LSU listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with LSU. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets we’ve seen LSU fall from -3 to -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing LSU to begin with? Because smart money has sided with home dog Arkansas plus the points (specifically at +3), triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Arkansas is only receiving 24% of spread bets but 38% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers in their favor. Arkansas is also one of the top contrarian plays of the day as they are highly unpopular in a heavily bet 7 p.m. ET game on ESPN. The Razorbacks have buy-low value as an unranked home conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Arkansas enjoys a notable rest advantage, as they are coming off a bye and playing their third straight home game while LSU played on Saturday and now much travel on the road. The Razorbacks are a “dog who can score” system match (33 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Arkansas also has the better defense, allowing 19.1 PPG compared to LSU giving up 22.3 PPG.

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