Today we have a loaded Week 9 College Football slate on tap with roughly 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-4.5, 52.5)
Ole Miss (6-1, ranked 8th) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Georgia 43-35 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Oklahoma (6-1, ranked 13th) just took care of business against South Carolina 26-7, easily covering as 4.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
This public thinks this line is way too high and 73% of spread bets are taking the points with Ole Miss.
However, despite the public pounding the Rebels we’ve seen this line remain steady at Oklahoma -4.5. In fact, oddsmakers are juicing up Sooners -4.5 (-115), with some shops touching as high as Sooners -5.5 at times throughout the week.
In other words, all movement and liability has been in favor of Oklahoma laying the points, as the Sooners are showing a sharp “fade the trendy dog” line freeze and some reverse line movement in their favor.
Oklahoma is one the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as they are receiving roughly one-quarter of tickets in one of the most heavily bet games of the day.
At DraftKings, the Sooners are taking in 27% of spread bets but 46% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the unpopular home favorite.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 10-7 ATS (59%) this season and 134-89 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2016.
Oklahoma has a big edge defensively, allowing only 10.5 PPG (2nd best in CFB) compared to Ole Miss giving up 22.6 PPG (43rd).
3:30 p.m. ET: BYU at Iowa State (-2.5, 48.5)
BYU (7-0, ranked 11th) just upset Utah 24-21, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Iowa State (5-2) just fell to Colorado 24-17, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home field advantage, why is an unranked team favored over an undefeated ranked team?
The public says “the wrong team is favored” and 59% of spread bets are taking BYU plus the points.
However, despite the public backing BYU we’ve actually seen the line move further toward Iowa State -1.5 to -2.5. In addition, most shops are juicing up Iowa State -2.5 (-115 or -120).
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Iowa State, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Iowa State is receiving 41% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could elect to target the Cyclones on the moneyline at -140.
At DraftKings, Iowa State is receiving 26% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro money backing a straight up Cyclones win.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 57-31 (65%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2017.
Iowa State also enjoys a rest advantage as the Cyclones are coming off a bye while BYU just played a tough conference game against rival Utah.
The Cyclones are also offering buy-low value as a unpopular favorite who has lost two in a row against a sell-high trendy undefeated favorite.
4 p.m. ET: Baylor at Cincinnati (-3.5, 67.5)
Baylor (4-3) just came up short against TCU 42-36, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Cincinnati (6-1, ranked 21st) just crushed Oklahoma State 49-17, covering as 23.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public is happy to lay the points with the Bearcats, who have the far better won-loss record and ranking.
However, despite receiving 78% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Cincinnati fall from -5.5 to -3.5. The line movement toward Baylor has been steady and consistent without any buyback on Cincinnati. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baylor plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of the Bears despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Baylor is receiving 22% of spread bets but 51% of spread dollars At Circa, Baylor is taking 28% of spread bets and a massive 86% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Bears.
Baylor has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs vs ranked opponents are 54-46 ATS (54%) this season and 162-137 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2024.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 646-570 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2012.
Baylor has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
The Bears are a “dog who can score” system match (35.3 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
Baylor has buy-low value as an unpopular dog who lost and failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite who just won and covered.
