Today we have a loaded Week 6 College Football slate on tap with roughly 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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4 p.m. ET: West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-3, 64.5)

West Virginia (2-2) is coming off a 32-28 win over Kansas, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (3-2) has dropped two straight and just got rolled by Kansas State 42-20, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public sees a “get right” spot for Oklahoma State and 77% of spread bets are laying the chalk with the home favorite. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Oklahoma State fall from -5 to -3. Several shops are even inching down to -2.5. The movement toward the Mountaineers has been steady and consistent all week with no Oklahoma State buyback. The Mountaineers are only receiving 23% of spread bets but 43% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. West Virginia also offers notable contrarian value, as they are only receiving about a one-quarter of bets in a heavily bet late afternoon game on ESPN2. Short road dogs +4 or less are 580-500 (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012. The Mountaineers enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Cowboys played on Saturday. West Virginia has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Mountaineers are also a “dog who can score” system match (31.8 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Sharps have leaned under, dropping the total from 65.5 to 64.5. The under is receiving 58% of bets and 73% of dollars, signaling slight public support but also heavy under smart money.

7:30 p.m. ET: USC (-8.5, 46.5) at Minnesota

USC (3-1, ranked 11th) just took down Wisconsin 38-21, covering as 14-point home favorites. Conversely, Minnesota (2-3) just fell to Michigan 27-24 but covered as 10.5-point road dogs. This line opened with USC listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with USC and 70% of spread bets are laying the points with the Trojans. However, despite receiving this heavy dose of public support, the line hasn’t budged off USC -8.5. In fact, it has even dipped down to -8 at some shops. It has never risen up to -9. Reading between the lines, it appears as though Minnesota is receiving a sharp line freeze, as the line hasn’t moved despite heavy USC betting. Normally if a favorite is -8.5 and getting 70% of bets you would expect to see the line rise up to -9 or -10. The fact that it hasn’t moved despite receiving lopsided support signals a reluctance on the part of the oddsmakers to adjust the number toward the popular side for fear of giving out an additional half point or more to contrarian Minnesota backers. The Gophers are only receiving 30% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Minnesota has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Gophers also have notable contrarian value as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game. USC could also be in a letdown “lookahead” spot as they host Penn State next week. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 52 to 46.5. The under is only receiving 34% of bets but a whopping 64% of dollars, further evidence of wiseguy money banking on a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

10:30 p.m. ET: Miami (-10, 54) at California

Miami (5-0, ranked 8th) just secured a thrilling 38-34 last-second victory over Virginia Tech but failed to cover as 17.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, California (3-1) just fell to Florida State 14-9, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 12.5-point road favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the double digit spread and 80% of spread bets are laying the points with the Hurricanes. However, despite receiving a massive dose of public support we’ve seen Miami fall from -12.5 to -10. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Miami to begin with? Because pros have sided with California plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their direction. California is only receiving 20% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in a heavily bet late night nationally televised game at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. California has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Golden Bears enjoy a pronounced “rest vs tired” advantage, as they are coming off a bye week while Miami played an emotional thriller against Virginia Tech on Saturday and now must travel cross country in a possible “letdown” spot. Cal will lean on their stout defense to keep this one close, allowing only 12.8 PPG this season, 7th best in the country. Wiseguys have also leaned under, dropping the total from 55 to 54. Some shops are even down to 53.5. The under is receiving 27% of bets but 45% of dollars, further evidence of the sharper wagers banking on a lower scoring game.

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