Today we have a loaded Saturday slate of College Football Week 3 action on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Clemson (-3, 52) at Georgia Tech
Clemson (1-1, ranked 12th) just took down Troy 27-16 but failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Georgia Tech (2-0) just crushed Gardner Webb 59-12, cruising as 37.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Clemson listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Clemson, as the Tigers are receiving 75% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving a vast majority of tickets we’ve seen Clemson fall from -6 to -3, with some books even down to -2.5. The movement has been steady and consistent toward Georgia Tech, with the Yellow Jackets moving from +3.5 to +3 over the past 24-hours specifically.
Why would the oddsmakers continue to drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points with Clemson to begin with? Because an overload of smart money has gotten down on Georgia Tech plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Yellow Jackets.
At DraftKings, Georgia Tech is only receiving 25% of spread bets, making the Yellow Jackets one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day.
At Circa, Georgia Tech is taking in 43% of spread bets and a whopping 91% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy money out in Vegas backing the home dog.
The Yellow Jackets have buy-low value as an unranked team against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Unranked teams against ranked opponents are are 17-8 ATS (68%) with a 29% ROI this season and 128-103 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2024.
Georgia Tech has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
3:30 p.m. ET: Georgia (-3.5, 50.5) at Tennessee
Georgia (2-0, ranked 6th) just dismissed Austin Peay 28-6 but failed to cover as 46.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tennessee (2-0 ranked 15th) just crushed East Tennessee State 72-17, easily covering as 39.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as high as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public is happy to lay the points with Georgia, who is the higher ranked team. However, despite receiving 58% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Georgia plummet from -7.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Volunteers despite being the unpopular play.
The Volunteers have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 42% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the day.
At Circa, Tennessee is taking in 32% of spread bets and a whopping 82% of spread dollars, a heightened sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguys out in the desert grabbing the points with the home dog.
The Volunteers have betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen the line remain relatively stagnant at 50.5, with some shops dipping down to 49.5 earlier in the week.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 39% of bets and 54% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 57% of bets and a whopping 87% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars: bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
7:45 p.m. ET: Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-3, 48.5)
Vanderbilt (2-0) just upset Virginia Tech 44-20, easily winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, South Carolina (2-0, ranked 11th) just took care of business against South Carolina State 38-10 but failed to cover as 42.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with South Carolina listed as a 7-point home favorite.
The public sees an easy Gamecocks win and cover at home, with 80% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the points with South Carolina.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen South Carolina fall from -7 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Vanderbilt plus the points, as the line has moved drastically in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Vanderbilt has moved from +5.5 to +3 over the past 24-48 hours specifically.
Those looking to follow the sharp move would be wise to shop around for Vanderbilt plus the hook, as most books are down to Vanderbilt +3 but a few outliers are hanging +3.5 (-115 or -120).
The Commodores are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as they are receiving only 20% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet primetime games tonight (7:45 p.m. ET).
At DraftKings, Vanderbilt is receiving 20% of spread bets and 41% of spread dollars. At Circa, Vanderbilt is taking in 56% of spread bets but a whopping 98% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the pro bettors out in Vegas.
Vanderbilt has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a ranked opponent. The Commodores also have betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and leading to closer games.
