Today we have a loaded Week 4 Saturday slate of College Football on tap with roughly 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Texas Tech at Utah (-3.5, 57.5)
Texas Tech (3-0, ranked 17th) just took care of business against Oregon State 45-14, covering as 24-point home favorites. Similarly, Utah (3-0, ranked 16th) just brushed aside Wyoming 31-6, covering as 24.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Utah listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public sees two good teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this split ticket count at DraftKings, we’ve seen Utah fall from -4.5 to -3.5. Most shops are also juicing up Texas Tech +3.5 (-115 or -120) and some shops even touched Red Raiders +3 during the week.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move, we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the Red Raiders plus the points.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 632-551 ATS (53.4%) with a 3% ROI since 2012.
The Red Raiders are also a “dog who can score” system match, as they are averaging 53.5 PPG (2nd in College Football), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or back door cover. Utah is averaging 37 PPG, ranking 23rd.
Sharps have also hammered this over, raising the total from 55.5 to 57.5. At DraftKings, the over is taking in roughly 70% of bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in favor of a higher scoring game.
The weather looks perfect, with the forecast calling for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds.
12 p.m. ET: UNLV (-2.5, 49.5) at Miami Ohio
UNLV (3-0) just upset UCLA 30-23, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Miami Ohio (0-2) just got crushed by Rutgers 45-17, failing to cover as 15-point road dogs.
This line opened with UNLV listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite.
The pubic thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with undefeated UNLV.
However, despite receiving 77% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen UNLV fall from -4.5 to -2.5. Some shops are even down to UNLV -1.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering UNLV to begin with? Because respected pro action has come down on Miami Ohio plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
At DraftKings, Miami Ohio is receiving 23% of spread bets and 36% of spread dollars. At Circa, Miami Ohio is taking in 41% of spread bets but a hefty 83% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular RedHawks plus the points.
When both teams are coming off a bye, as is the case here, the home team is 114-94 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2006.
Miami Ohio has buy-low value as winless dog who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high undefeated favorite coming off an upset win and cover.
UNLV is also in a “fade” schedule spot as a West Coast team traveling East for an early noon kickoff.
12 p.m. ET: North Texas (-2.5, 50.5) at Army
North Texas (3-0) just crushed Washington State 59-10, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Army (1-1) just upset Kansas State 24-21, winning outright as 17.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Army listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on North Texas, flipping the Mean Green from a 2.5-point road dog to a 2.5-point road favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of North Texas.
At DraftKings, North Texas is receiving 63% of spread bets and 78% of spread dollars. At Circa, North Texas is taking in 73% of spread bets and 84% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road team.
Many sharps have looked to mitigate some risk by playing North Texas on the moneyline (-145).
At DraftKings, North Texas is receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, North Texas is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of wiseguy desert wagers backing a straight up victory for the Mean Green.
Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 53.5 to 50.5. This downward movement is notable because the public is playing the over (66% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in 57% of bets and 70% of dollars, a sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
7:30 p.m. ET: Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (-3, 50.5)
Southern Miss (2-1) just upset Appalachian State 38-22, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (2-1) just dismissed New Mexico State 49-14, easily covering as 10-point home favorites.
This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Despite being one of the lower bet and less popular games of the week, sharps have taken a keen interest on the home team, steaming Louisiana Tech up from -1.5 to -3. Even after this big line move, the market is still juicing up Louisiana Tech -3 (-115) with some shops even touching -3.5. From open to current, we’ve seen one way, under-the-radar wiseguy movement in favor of the home chalk.
At DraftKings, Louisiana Tech is taking in 66% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk and protect themselves from a three-point win that may not cover the number by taking Louisiana Tech on the moneyline at -155.
At Circa, the Bulldogs are receiving 67% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy pro money out in the desert backing a Louisiana Tech straight up victory.
