Today we have a loaded College Football Week 5 Saturday slate on tap with roughly 100 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-4.5, 63.5) at Arkansas
Notre Dame (1-2, ranked 22nd) just crushed Purdue 56-30, covering as 24.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Arkansas (2-2) just came up short against Memphis 32-31, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public sees an easy Irish win by a touchdown or more and 75% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Notre Dame.
However, despite receiving this lopsided public support we’ve seen Notre Dame tumble from -6 to -4.5. In addition, most books are across the market are juicing up Arkansas +4.5 (-115), signaling further liability on the home dog and a possible dip down to +4.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Irish to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Arkansas plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Razorbacks.
Arkansas is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Razorbacks are only receiving 25% of spread bets at DraftKings in one the most popular and heavily bet early games of the day.
Arkansas has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked dogs are 137-116 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI against ranked teams since 2024.
The Razorbacks have additional buy-low value as a dog who lost and failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite who won and covered the previous week.
Arkansas is also a “dog who can score” system match (40.7 PPG, 16th in CFB), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
3:30 p.m. ET: LSU at Ole Miss (-1.5, 57.5)
LSU (4-0, ranked 4th) just brushed aside Southeast Louisiana 56-10 but failed to cover as 48.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ole Miss (4-0, ranked 13th) just dominated Tulane 45-10, easily covering as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with LSU listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public is happy to back LSU, who is the higher ranked team. However, despite LSU receiving 62% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen this line flip to Ole Miss -1.5 at home. Most shops across the market are also juicing up Ole Miss -1.5 (-115), signaling a possible gameday move up to -2.
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Ole Miss at home.
At DraftKings, Ole Miss is only receiving 38% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars. At Circa, Ole Miss is taking in 71% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team.
Those looking to follow the sharp Ole Miss line move but also wary of a close win that may not cover the number could instead elect to play the Rebels on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, the Rebels are taking in 28% of moneyline bets and 38% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rebels are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet split in favor of a straight up Ole Miss victory at home.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 173-43 (80%) straight up with a 10% ROI since 2016.
7:30 p.m. ET: Alabama at Georgia (-2.5, 53.5)
Alabama (2-1, ranked 17th) just took care of business against Wisconsin 38-14, covering as 18.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia (3-0, ranked 5th) just eked by Tennessee 44-41 in overtime but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 81% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Georgia at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Georgia fall from -4.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Alabama plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Crimson Tide despite being the unpopular play. Over the last 24-hours, we’ve seen Alabama fall from the key number of +3 to +2.5, signaling late movement breaking even further in favor of the road dog.
Alabama is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Week 5 as the Crimson Tide are only receiving 19% of spread bets in a heavily bet, primetime game (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
At DraftKings, Alabama is receiving 19% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars. At Circa, Alabama is taking in 18% of spread bets but a whipping 82% of spread dollars, further evidence of the respected pro wagers out in Vegas backing the road dog.
Short road dogs +4 or less are 634-553 ATS (53%) with a 3% ROI since 2012.
Alabama has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
When two SEC teams face off, the dog is 45-26 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI since 2024.
