Week 1 of the College Football season continues with a pair of nationally televised matchups today. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina (-7.5, 51.5)
Virginia Tech finished 6-7 last season and oddsmakers expect a similar showing this year as their win total is set at 6.5 with the under juiced to -130 at BetMGM. Meanwhile, South Carolina went 9-4 last year and oddsmakers expect the Gamecocks to take a bit of a step back this season as their win total sits at 7.5 with the under juiced to -165.
This line opened with South Carolina (ranked 13th) listed as a 9.5-point neutral site favorite, as the game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons.
The public thinks this line is way too low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Gamecocks.
However, despite 86% of spread bets laying the points at DraftKings we’ve seen South Carolina fall from -9.5 to -7.5, with some shops even inching down to -7 on gameday. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Virginia Tech plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
Virginia Tech has notable “bet against the public” value as they Hokies are only receiving 14% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised game. The Hokies also offer buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Meanwhile, at Circa the Hokies are taking in only 35% of spread bets but a whopping 87% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas taking the neutral site dog.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a big jump up from 45.5 to 51.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 51% of bets and 58% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 60% of bets but only 53% of dollars.
7:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-2.5, 50.5) at Miami
Notre Dame finished an impressive 14-2 last season, reaching the CFP Championship game where the Irish fell to Ohio State 34-23. Oddsmakers are expecting a bit of regression this season as the Irish win total sits at 10.5 with the under juiced -140. Meanwhile, Miami is coming off a 10-3 season and their win total for this year is set at 9.5 with the under juiced to -130.
This line opened with Notre Dame (ranked 6th) listed as a 3-point road favorite.
The public is all over the Irish, with 77% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the short road chalk.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Notre Dame fall from -3 to -2.5.
Normally, if a team is receiving such heavy betting you would expect to see them rise up from -3 to -3.5 or -4. The fact that this line has tumbled away from Notre Dame indicates sharp reverse line movement in favor Miami (ranked 10th) plus the points.
Those looking to follow the sharp Miami line move would be wise to shop around and search for a +3, as a few outlier books are still offering the key number while the majority of the market sits at 2.5.
Miami has heightened “bet against the public” value as the Hurricanes are only receiving 23% of spread bets in the most heavily bet primetime game of the night.
Meanwhile, at Circa the Hurricanes are receiving 30% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating wiseguy Vegas money backing the home team plus the points.
Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 54 to 50.5. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 55% of bets and 62% of dollars, further evidence of pros leaning toward a lower scoring game. Weather might play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 80s, 6-10 MPH winds and possibly some rain showers.
