Week 1 of the College Football regular season continues today with a tripleheader of ranked matchups. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of high profile games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Louisville vs Ole Miss (-6.5, 54.5)
This neutral site showdown will be played at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, home of the Tennessee Titans.
Louisville (ranked 24th) went 9-4 last season and oddsmakers expect some slight regression this year as their win total sits at 8.5 at DraftKings with the under juiced to -158. Similarly, Ole Miss (ranked 9th) finished 13-2 last year and oddsmakers are expecting the Rebels to take a step back this season as their win total rests at 8.5 with the under heavily juiced to -175.
This line opened with Ole Miss listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short, especially after Ole Miss reached the College Football Playoff Semifinal last season, and 76% of spread bets are laying the chalk with the Rebels, who are ranked higher.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Ole Miss remain relatively stagnant at -6.5.
Normally, if a team is receiving such lopsided support you’d expect the oddsmakers to adjust the line in their favor, in this case moving Ole Miss up from -6.5 to -7.5 or higher. The fact that this line has barely budged despite heavy betting on Ole Miss signals a sharp line freeze on Louisville plus the points.
More closely, anytime a book ticks up to Ole Miss -7, we’ve seen sharp Louisville +7 buyback hit the market.
Louisville offers heightened “bet against the public” value as the Cardinals are only receiving roughly a quarter of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ABC.
At DraftKings, Louisville is taking in 24% of spread bets and 30% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Cardinals are receiving 49% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road dog plus the points.
Those looking to go contrarian would be wise to shop around for Louisville +7, as much of the market is sitting +6.5 but a few books are offering the key number of +7 at -115.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it dip down from 55.5 to 54.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving only 22% of bets but 42% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 39% of bets and 51% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
7:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin vs Notre Dame (-20.5, 46.5)
This neutral site showdown will be played at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin, home of the Green Bay Packers.
Wisconsin posted a disappointing 4-8 campaign last season but oddsmakers expect a slight improvement this year as their win total sits at 6.5 with the under juiced every so slightly to -115. On the other hand, Notre Dame (ranked 4th) went 10-2 last season and oddsmakers expect another strong showing this year as their win total rests at 10.5 with the over juiced heavily to -270.
This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 20.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public expects an Irish blowout win and 87% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with Notre Dame.
However, despite receiving such massive support Notre Dame hasn’t move off -20.5.
The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite overwhelming Irish support signals a sharp line freeze on Wisconsin plus the points, as oddsmakers refuse to hand out extra points to contrarian Badgers backers despite being such an unpopular play. In fact, anytime a book touched Notre Dame -21 we saw sharp Wisconsin +21 buyback, dropping the line back down to -20.5. Some books even briefly touched Wisconsin +20.
Wisconsin is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Badgers are only receiving 13% of spread bets in one of the the most heavily bet, nationally televised games of the night on NBC.
The Badgers offer buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Wisconsin also offers correlative betting value as a big double-digit dog in a low total game (46.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover the number.
Despite being a neutral site game, Wisconsin will additionally enjoy de-facto home field advantage as the game will be played in their backyard.
Wiseguys have also played the under, dropping the total from 48 to 46.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in only 33% of bets but 49% of dollars, a sharp bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
