Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, September 6 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Market Timing (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Market Timing
2. Noble Dynasty
3. Iron Sight
MARKET TIMING’s switch to turf for this first start off the long layoff resulted in an impressive maiden win at Monmouth while just powering away from those rivals; was given a no-chance trip in his first attempt against other winners, as he was always kept over behind horses without coming clear; stretching out with a chance to rebound. NOBLE DYNASTY has failed to build on a promising start to his career as a 2yo, though he has been competitive in his three starts vs allowance company this year; gets a rider change for this, and stretching back out is no issue. IRON SIGHT has improved with the surface switch for Brown, beginning with a late-running fifth here last summer before the layoff; third off the break after earning a new top figure going goin this distance last time.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eleven races on Sunday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Warnock
2. The Standard
3. Disparate Impact
WARNOCK had more trouble at the break than was noted in the chart in his debut; tried a wide run from the back to no avail in that spot; drops and switches to dirt – which he is bred for – to make his second start. THE STANDARD hit the board in three of his first four dirt starts while facing tougher, and the 80 Beyer he earned two back makes him fastest on the way into this; drops to the lowest level yet looking for the right spot. DISPARATE IMPACT was in an off-turf race when only second-best two starts back; was up in class off the claim last time, where he was no match while doing his best; drops back down and tries sprinting.
Second Race
1. Play With Fire
2. Inefficiency
3. Unreasonable
PLAY WITH FIRE lacked an excuse when only second-best after sitting a trip and making a stretch lead in her return from the layoff; she still improved to a slight new Beyer top for that effort, and her stakes form as a 3yo makes her tough in here if ready to take another step forward. INEFFICIENCY shaped with plenty of potential as a dirt horse early on, though she has found stakes company to be a bit too tough recently; interesting switching to turf in a race that projects to be run at a moderate pace as she breaks from the rail with speed. UNREASONABLE took a tough beat last time when kept close to a strong pace for the distance before making the lead, only to get nailed by a last-to-first winner; drops back to a shorter distance and loses Franco to the top one.
Third Race
1. Next On Stage
2. Roman Grace
3. Romantic Dancer
NEXT ON STAGE stalked and rolled to a new Beyer top when winning at this level two starts back on this track; tried moving into a tougher race last time and had to settle for third; figures tough stepping back down in class. ROMAN GRACE defeated NEXT ON STAGE at this level back in May on a wet track; she also tried moving up in class last time when off the claim for Rice, where she bumped into multiple Grade 1 winner Scottish Lassie; returns in a better spot after a short freshening. ROMANTIC DANCER dueled ROMAN GRACE from start to finish before settling for second over a speed-favoring track back in February, then also finished second in three of her next four starts before getting a break; third off the layoff for a trainer having a solid meet.
Fourth Race
1. Hen Party
2. Goodall
3. Mythical
HEN PARTY has yet to start on dirt, though her form on turf and synthetic is rock-solid, and her pedigree suggests that she might be versatile enough to handle a third surface – her dam won races on all three, and was a Grade 1 winner sprinting on dirt, and her only sibling to date has run well on both dirt and turf, also for this trainer; interesting, but needs the right trip. GOODALL has not quite been able to go with graded stakes horses, but she has been dominant in the two wins in overnight stakes as a 3yo, including the Jersey Girl on this track over MYTHICAL; steps back into a better spot after doing her best to no avail in the Grade 1 Test last time. MYTHICAL tried switching to turf last time without success; her prior start on dirt was not one of her good ones, though she did break through the gate before the start that day; owns a top race that makes her tough, and she has speed if her rider wants to use it.
Fifth Race
1. Inalienable
2. Miracle Michael
3. Randee
INALIENABLE is by top sire Constitution and the first foal from this dam, who is from a quality Broman female family that includes multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter Hard To Stay Notgo (second dam, also a runaway debut winner as a 2yo at Saratoga); looks well-prepped for the leading trainer. MIRACLE MICHAEL is a homebred by new sire Mind Control (3 for 25 with first-time starters so far), from the female family of Valente’s crack sprinter Bustin Stones; easy breezes showing for Levine, who is underrated with first-time starters. RANDEE sold for $250k in April out of a ten-flat breeze. Cyberknife has five debut winners from his first crop; the dam was a stakes-winning dirt sprinter, and this colt is a half to debut winner Long Neck Paula, who was a two-time stakes winner as a juvenile; plenty of pedigree, and has three five-furlong breezes up.
Seventh Race
1. Chaumet
2. Pelican Pride
3. Magic in My Eyes
CHAUMET got steadied and shuffled back in traffic along the backstretch when dropped to this level last time; lightly raced filly can do better if able to work out a clean trip this time while facing several of the same rivals. PELICAN PRIDE is dropping for the first time while making her third start of the meet for a trainer who has had a quiet meet; she ran well on debut, but needs this class relief based on recent results. MAGIC IN MY EYES is also dropping down in class for this while third off the layoff; picked up some pieces late in her first start back, but failed to improve in a tougher spot last time; gets Franco in the first start for a tag.
Eighth Race
1. Tacticality
2. Dear Chairman
3. Toscano
TACTICALITY began his career on turf with some success, though he seemed to up his game when switched to dirt last time, as he contested the pace before pulling clear of some solid rivals with a 90 Beyer; might have to handle fast dirt, but he looks like a threat right back while logically spotted. DEAR CHAIRMAN showed speed and faded off the layoff at Finger Lakes; got in tougher than expected on that sloppy track last time, as the winner of that race ran off on the lead and earned a 97 Beyer; drops with back races that make him tough. TOSCANO could not get to DEAR CHAIRMAN on the lead when settling for second-best going this distance last June; he missed a lot of time after that and has tried two tougher races since returning; needs this drop.
Ninth Race
1. Music in Motion
2. Blue Roof Beau
3. Calling Card
MUSIC IN MOTION switched back and forth between turf and dirt early on while finding his way; not sure what made the difference, but he looked like an improved horse in the maiden win last time when holding his ground while being bumped and squeezed between horses in the stretch, and then finishing up strongly when clear; dangerous right back. BLUE ROOF BEAU made a positive impression to win on debut after being forced to contest the pace along the rail; he didn’t make his next start until August, and he was not nearly as sharp that day; back without a break this time. CALLING CARD scored an easy win over two-life claimers two back when claimed; was even better winning his first start for Rice last time with a co-field-best 88 Beyer; tries sprinting.
Tenth Race
1. The Good Life
2. Lifesong
3. Booked
THE GOOD LIFE debuted early in the meet going six, and he was a sharp winner of that race while showing speed from the start; has been breezing right along since then back home in Kentucky, and he has had plenty of time to develop for Cox. LIFESONG sat a handy trip after bumping at the start, then finished gamely to close down what looked like a solid field of maidens in his Ellis Park debut; ships up for a dangerous trainer. BOOKED owns the experience edge on most of these with four starts and two wins under his belt already, including a Grade 3 victory on this track; might need to improve in this spot after proving to be no match for the winner in the Saratoga Special last time.
Eleventh Race
1. Creditworthy
2. Bite and Strike
3. Determined Kingdom
CREDITWORTHY made it 3 for 3 over course and distance when powering home to down a solid field of allowance rivals off the layoff last month; keeps getting better and he should have some pace to come after once again. BITE AND STRIKE has upped his game since being claimed by Linda Rice; scored in an off-turf race last time to make it three in a row,, but he was more impressive in his two prior starts on turf; gets a nice class test here. DETERMINED KINGDOM has gotten back in excellent form as a 7yo, beginning with a strong win off a wide trip over this course in June; threat shipping back in after two solid efforts out of town.
Twelfth Race
1. Engraved
2. Tizio
3. Tango Tango
ENGRAVED was conservatively ridden to sit last all the way to the top of the stretch, before just racing on mildly in the stretch of his sprint debut; bred to stretch out, and eligible to improve quickly with blinkers going on. TIZIO is a homebred by the excellent turf sire Omaha Beach, from a dam who was a four-time turf route winner for this trainer during her racing career; capped off a good-looking series of works with a bullet five furlongs from the gate. TANGO TANGO was let go at over 50/1 in his career debut, and he was ridden like a longshot that day while finishing deceptively well to be beaten by less than four lengths; took the expected step forward last time at another good price; not out of this.
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