Week 1 of the College Football season continues tonight with a loaded 17 game slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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5:30 p.m. ET: Boise State (-5.5, 62.5) vs South Florida
Boise State finished an impressive 12-2 last season, falling to Penn State 31-14 in the College Football Playoff. Oddsmakers expect another strong season from the Broncos, with their win total set at 9.5 with the over juiced to -200 at DraftKings. On the other hand, South Florida went 7-6 last season and their win total sits at 6.5 this year with the over juiced to -120.
For tonight’s season opener, Boise State (ranked 25th) opened as a 9.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public expects an easy double-digit with by the Broncos. However, despite receiving 77% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Boise State plummet from -9.5 to -5.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line so drastically and make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing the Broncos to begin with? Because respected smart money has come down on South Florida plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
The Broncos have buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked dog against a ranked opponent and are one of the top contrarian plays of the night, as they are only receiving roughly one-quarter of tickets in one of the most heavily bet nationally televised games.
At Circa, South Florida is only receiving 21% of spread bets but a whopping 86% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the Vegas pro money backing the home dog plus the points.
We’ve also seen some respected action on the under, dropping the total from 63.5 to 62.5, with some books down to 61.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 58% of bets and 63% of dollars. At Circa, the under receiving 81% of bets and 80% of dollars.
The game will be played at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The forecast calls for high 80s and mild 7 MPH winds.
7 p.m. ET: Wyoming (-5.5, 47.5) at Akron
Wyoming finished a disappointing 3-9 last season. Oddsmakers are expecting more of the same this year, with the Broncos win total set at 5.5 with the under juiced to -160. Meanwhile, Akron went 4-8 last year and their win total is set at 4.5 with the under juiced to -160.
Tonight’s line opened with Wyoming listed as high as a 9.5-point road favorite.
The public is laying the points with Broncos. However, despite receiving 66% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Wyoming fall from 9.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Akron, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Akron is taking in 34% of spread bets and 42% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Zips are receiving 75% of spread bets and a hefty 97% of spread dollars. This “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicates heavy Pro and Joe support on Akron plus the points out in Vegas.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 47.5. This downward movement is notable because the public is playing the over (67% of bets), yet the total fell. At Circa, over 90% of bets and dollars are taking the under, further evidence of big money banking on a lower scoring game.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for low 60s with possible thunderstorms and 10 MPH winds.
9 p.m. ET: Nebraska (-6.5, 51.5) vs Cincinnati
Nebraska finished 7-6 last season and oddsmakers are expecting a slightly better performance this time around, with their win total set at 7.5 with the over juiced -160. On the other hand, Cincinnati went 5-7 last season and their win total this year is 6.5 with the under juiced to -130.
This line opened with Nebraska listed a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, home of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The public can’t believe this line is so low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Nebraska.
However, despite a whopping 82% of spread bets laying the points with the Cornhuskers, this line has largely remained stagnant at Nebraska -6.5. In fact, anytime it briefly rosed to -7 or -7.5, we saw sharp buyback on Cincinnati plus the points, dropping the line back down to Cornhuskers -6.5.
Normally, if a team is getting 80% of spread bets or more you would expect the line to rise heavily in their direction and stay that way. The fact that the line is right back where we started despite heavy public support in favor of Nebraska indicates a sharp line freeze on Cincinnati plus the points.
At DraftKings, the Bearcats are taking in only 18% of spread bets in a nationally televised game, making them the top “bet against the public” play of the night.
At Circa, Cincinnati is receiving only 15% of spread bets but 37% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy out in the desert.
