Happy New Year! Today we ring in 2026 with a trio of College Football Playoff Quarterfinal matchups. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Oregon (-2.5, 50.5) vs Texas Tech
This is the Capital One Orange Bowl and it will be played at Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins.
Oregon (12-1) is the 5-seed and just took down James Madison 51-34 in the first round of the playoffs but failed to cover as 21-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas Tech (12-1) is the 4-seed and just brushed aside BYU 34-7 in the Big 12 championship game, covering as a 12.5-point neutral site favorite.
This line opened with Oregon listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Ducks laying short chalk, driving Oregon up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Oregon is taking in 59% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Ducks are receiving 50% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of Oregon.
Many pros have looked to mitigate risk and protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting the Ducks on the moneyline at -130.
We’ve also seen some respected smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 50.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 29% of bets and 40% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 40% of bets and 63% of dollars. Both books are showing a contrarian wiseguy bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Both of these teams are excellent defensively, as Texas Tech is only allowing 11.3 PPG (2nd overall) and Oregon is giving up just 16.6 PPG (7th).
4 p.m. ET: Alabama vs Indiana (-7, 48)
This is the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and it will be played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
Alabama (11-3) is the 9-seed and just upset Oklahoma 34-24 in the first round of the playoffs, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Indiana (13-0) is the 1-seed and just took down Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten championship game, winning outright as 4.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Indiana listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit high and 58% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with Alabama.
However, despite Alabama receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen this line creep up further toward Indiana, with the Hoosiers get bet up from -6.5 to -7, with some shops even inching up to -7.5 on gameday. This signals some “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Indiana, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing Alabama.
At DraftKings, Indiana is taking in 42% of spread bets and 53% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Hoosiers are receiving 68% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the unpopular chalk.
Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48, with some shops inching down to 47.5.
This downward movement is notable because the public is playing the over (62% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell.
At Circa, the under is receiving 23% of bets and 49% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for low 60s with cloudy skies, 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
8 p.m. ET: Ole Miss vs Georgia (-6.5, 55.5)
This is the Allstate Sugar Bowl and it will be played at the Caesars Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints.
Ole Miss (12-1) is the 6-seed and just handled Tulane 41-10 in the first round of the playoffs, easily covering as 17.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Georgia (12-1) is the 3-seed and just dominated Alabama 28-7 in the SEC championship game, cruising as 1.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 76% of spread bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Bulldogs.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Georgia remain relatively stagnant at -6.5. This line briefly rose up to Georgia -7 before some sharp Ole Miss +7 buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down to Georgia -6.5. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on Ole Miss, as the line has barely budged despite the heavy Georgia betting.
Ole Miss is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Rebels are only receiving 24% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime playoff game on ESPN.
At Circa, the Rebels are taking in only 19% of spread bets but a whopping 64% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the pros out in Vegas taking the points.
Ole Miss has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points, as well as a “dog who can score” system match (36.6 PPG, 10th overall), which increases the chances they can keep pace or back door cover.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down slightly from 56.5 to 55.5.
At Circa, the under is taking in 47% of bets but a lopsided 91% of dollars, indicating heavy pro action from the wiseguys in the desert in favor of a lower scoring game.
