Today we have a tripleheader of Bowl Games across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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5:30 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss (-1.5, 58.5)
This is the New Orleans Bowl at it will be played at the Caesars Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints.
Western Kentucky (8-4) has dropped two straight and just came up short against Jacksonville State 37-34 in the Conference USA championship game, losing outright as 1.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Southern Miss (7-5) has lost three in a row and just fell to Troy 28-18, losing outright as a 6.5-point home favorite.
This line opened with Western Kentucky listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite.
The public is all over the Hilltoppers, who are receiving 66% of spread bets at DraftKings.
However, despite Western Kentucky receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of Southern Miss, pushing the Golden Eagles from a 4-point neutral site dog to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Some shops are even creeping up toward Southern Miss -2.5 on gameday.
In other words, we are seeing massive “dog to favorite” one-way reverse line movement in favor of Southern Miss, as the line has moved substantially in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Southern Miss is taking in 34% of spread bets and 53% of spread dollars. At Circa, Southern Miss is receiving 46% of spread bets and a whopping 79% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the Golden Eagles.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing Southern Miss on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, the Golden Eagles are receiving 24% of moneyline bets and 35% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Southern Miss is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas backing a straight up victory for the Golden Eagles.
We’ve also seen a flood of over action hit the market, steaming the total up from 55.5 to 58.5 with some shops touching 59 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 55% of bets and 79% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 47% of bets and 80% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
9 p.m. ET: UNLV (-6.5, 65.5) vs Ohio
This is the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl and it will be played in Frisco, Texas.
UNLV (10-3) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Boise State 38-21 in the Mountain West championship game and failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Ohio (8-4) just took down Buffalo 31-26 but failed to cover as 7-point road favorites.
This line opened with UNLV listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with UNLV.
This lopsided betting drove the Rebels up from -3.5 to -7. However, once we reached the key number of 7 we saw some respected inflated dog buyback on Ohio +7, dropping UNLV back down to -6.5 where they stand on gameday.
Ohio is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Bobcats are only receiving 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
At Circa, Ohio is taking in 23% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of pros out in the desert grabbing the points with the Bobcats.
Ohio offers additional “buy on bad news” contrarian value as the Bobcats just abruptly fired their head coach Brian Smith for cause. Aside from the coaching change, Ohio will be at full strength without any notable injuries or opt-outs.
In terms of the total, it opened at 62.5, got steamed up as high as 66.5 but has since fallen back down to 65.5 or even 65 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 55% of bets and 65% of dollars. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 61% of bets and 60% of dollars on the over.
The forecast calls for low 70s with mostly clear skies and 10 MPH winds with gusts up to 15-20 MPH.
