Today we have a tripleheader of Bowl Games on tap across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2 p.m. ET: Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech (-10, 49.5)
This is the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl and it will be played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.
Coastal Carolina (6-6) has dropped three straight games and just got rolled by James Madison 59-10, failing to cover as 23.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Louisiana Tech (7-5) has won two in a row and just held off Missouri State 42-30, easily winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Bulldogs, steaming Louisiana Tech up from -7 to -10, with some shops inching up to -10.5 on gameday.
At DraftKings, Louisiana Tech is taking in 54% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also respected smart money in favor of the chalk.
Coastal Carolina will be down several key players due to opt-outs. They also just fired their head coach Tim Beck. Defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson will coach this game in his place.
In terms of the total, it opened at 50.5, dipped down to 49.5 and has since risen back up to 50.5 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 66% of bets and 88% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 75% of bets and 67% of dollars.
The forecast calls for mid 40s with clear skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds.
5:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee (-3, 61.5) vs Illinois
This is the Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl and it will be played at Nissan Stadium, home of the Tennessee Titans.
Tennessee (8-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Vanderbilt 45-24 and losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Illinois (8-4) has won three of their last four and just held off Northwestern 20-13 but failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 74% of spread bets at DraftKings and laying the points with the Volunteers.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Tennessee tumble from -5.5 to -3, with some shops even falling toward -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Illinois, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Illinois is taking in 26% of spread bets and 43% of spread dollars. At Circa, Illinois is receiving 51% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Fighting Illini.
Tennessee will be without several key players, as star WR Chris Brazzell, edge Joshua Josephs, LB Arion Carter and CB Colton Hood have left to prepare for the NFL Draft. Motivation may also side with Illinois. After all, Tennessee had higher expectations and hoped to be playing in a College Football Playoff game, not a Bowl Game.
In terms of the total, it opened at 61.5 and has remained relatively stagnant.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 53% of bets and 77% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 66% of bets and 62% of dollars.
The forecast calls for mid 30s with partly cloudy skies and 5-7 MPH winds.
9 p.m. ET: USC (-5.5, 56.5) vs TCU
This is the Valero Alamo Bowl and it will be played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
USC (9-3, ranked 16th) has won four of their last five and just brushed aside UCLA 29-10 but failed to cover as 21.5-point home favorites. Similarly, TCU (8-4) has won two straight and just dominated Cincinnati 45-23, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with USC listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with USC, who has the better record and ranking.
However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen USC fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of TCU, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
TCU offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Horned Frogs are only receiving 32% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.
At Circa, TCU is receiving 40% of spread bets and 45% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 58.5 to 56.5 despite 67% of bets at DraftKings playing the over.
At Circa, the under is receiving only 17% of bets but 48% of dollars, a sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Both teams are dealing with a plethora of injuries, opt-outs and coaching changes.
USC will be without starting WRs Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane (both declared for the NFL Draft). Meanwhile, TCU starting QB Josh Hoover has entered the transfer portal and will not play in this game. Senior backup Ken Seals will start in his place.
