Tonight we have a pair of Week 12 MACtion games on tap across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
7:30 p.m. ET: Kent State at Akron (-6.5, 48.5)
Kent State (3-6) just came up short against Ball State 17-13, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, Akron (4-6) just dominated Massachusetts 44-10, easily covering as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Akron listed as a 5.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought this opener was a bit short and have laid the wood with Akron at home, steaming the Zips up from -5.5 to -6.5. In addition, Akron is being juiced up -6.5 (-115 or -120) on gameday, signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of 7.
At Circa, Akron is taking in 79% of spread bets and a whopping 99% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Both teams are roughly even in terms of scoring offense (both 18 PPG), but Akron has the edge in scoring defense (29.3 PPG allowed vs 36.5 PPG allowed).
Akron enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on November 4th while Kent State last played on November 5th. Akron will be playing their second straight home game while Kent State will be playing their second straight road game.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 47.5 to 48.5. However, the under 48.5 is being juiced up to -115 on gameday, which some shops inching back down to 48.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 44% of bets but 64% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
Kent State ranks 135th in pace of play, the 2nd slowest team in College Football.
Weather could play a factor here, as the forecast calls for freezing 30 degree temperatures with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 30 MPH.
8 p.m. ET: Ohio at Western Michigan (-1.5, 46.5)
Ohio (6-3) just edged Miami Ohio 24-20, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Western Michigan (5-4) just held off Central Michigan 24-21 but failed to cover as 6-point home favorites.
This line opened with Ohio listed as a 1-point road favorite.
The public thinks Ohio is the better team and 54% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing the Bobcats.
However, despite Ohio receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Western Michigan, moving the Broncos from a 1-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Broncos.
At DraftKings, Western Michigan is receiving 46% of spread bets but a whopping 81% of spread dollars. At Circa, Western Michigan is taking in 74% of spread bets and 79% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team.
Western Michigan enjoys a 3-day rest advantage, having last played on November 1st at home while Ohio just played on November 4th.
Sharps have looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by targeting Western Michigan on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, Western Michigan is taking in 37% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian split in favor of a straight up home victory.
When two MAC teams face off in conference play, the home favorite is 16-3 (84%) straight up with a 19% ROI this season.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 48 to 46.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 49% of bets but 71% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split.
Once again, weather could play a role here as the forecast calls for 32 degrees with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH.
